Situation in Mariupol: Vladimir Putin tells the next story

Situation in Mariupol: Vladimir Putin tells the next story

Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly calls off the storming of a steel plant in Mariupol and is demonstratively generous. What shoud that?

When Vladimir Putin asks for a meal, the images go around the world – for example, when French President Emmanuel Macron and a few days later Chancellor Olaf Scholz sat across from the Kremlin ruler to promote a non-violent solution to the Ukraine conflict. To a certain extent, both were dragged across the six-metre-long table: Shortly after the meeting, the Russian President had Ukraine attacked.

That was eight weeks ago now. The question remains: what does Putin want?

Even on the 58th day of the Ukraine war, an answer is proving difficult. The decision about the end of the Russian invasion seems to fall solely in the head of the Kremlin ruler – a place that is described and and so far seems to have defied all attempts at mapping and crisis diplomacy.

Any morsel of information; every hint, no matter how small, of the (actual) intentions and considerations of the Russian President are therefore followed with particular attention, as they could be a clue about the further course of the war. In this respect, the video that the Kremlin published on Thursday morning was quite revealing.

It shows Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu at a small table with Putin, who is having the first “success” of his campaign announced two months later. The embattled port city of Mariupol has been taken and is under Russian control, reports Shoigu, who is sitting on the edge of a chair and leaning forward like a boy.

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The President is leaning in his chair, somewhat lost, as he tells us how to proceed after the presentation. It is an absurd spectacle that was shown on state television. And raises all sorts of questions. For example: What is that even?

Vladimir Putin and the “Liberation of Mariupol”

Since February 24, when Putin called for an attack on Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense has had the role of explaining the status of the “special operation” – as the war in Russia has to be called. And to reinterpret the numerous failures into supposed successes. The rapid withdrawal of troops from the areas in the north and north-east of Ukraine, that is, the obvious failure of the Russian offensive, became . The distribution of roles so far may also have been due to the attempt to decouple the Kremlin ruler from any appearance of failure.

So why is Putin stepping into the limelight as military commander-in-chief?

Since the invasion began, many of his supporters have been waiting for what could look like a partial victory — especially after the world-publicized sinking of the Russian warship Moskva. The fact that the cruiser was probably sunk by two Ukrainian missiles a week ago still scratches the nation’s pride.

Now, a week later, at the table with his defense minister, Shoigu, Putin is talking about the “liberation of Mariupol.” The message should probably also inspire the fighting spirit of the troops. The leadership in Moscow had long complained that Mariupol in particular was the center of nationalist Ukrainian groups and therefore a great threat to Russia.

Putin now sees this threat averted – and as commander-in-chief has been demonstratively generous for the first time since the beginning of the war. The president gives the Ukrainian fighters trapped in the steelworks one more chance, considers the “proposed storming of the industrial zone” “inexpedient” and orders it “cancelled”. The Ukrainian fighters should lay down their arms and go into Russian captivity. “The Russian side guarantees your life,” stresses Putin. For Ukraine, this should also be an offer to enter into negotiations with Russia about the release of the “Heroes of Mariupol”, who are celebrated at home.

2,500 fighters are said to be holding out in the catacombs of the steel works, which were built for a nuclear war. The Ukrainian government in Kyiv also speaks of 1,000 civilians, including women and children – and 500 wounded soldiers who urgently need medical help. However, it was unclear how people would get out of there.

Putin doesn’t want to just let the fighters go. He forbade the Minister of Defense to storm the plant, but at the same time ordered: “Block this industrial zone so that not even a fly can come out.” Those trapped are considered an important bargaining chip in the talks with Kyiv.

The interpretation that Putin could now show mercy in Mariupol is of course grotesque. The port city was bombed and surrounded for weeks, almost completely reduced to rubble. New satellite images indicate a .

But what does that matter? The Kremlin controls the press, the domestic narrative of the war. Instead of the shocking reports about the Russian atrocities in Mariupol, state television viewers are presented with images of the supposed benefactor Putin holding out his hand to the Ukrainian fighters. The interpretation of the military situation is also in Putin’s interest.

“Putin said what people want to hear”

The canceled conquest of the steel mill, which Putin described as “unexpedient,” could also be read as an admission. Russian troops failed to defeat Ukrainian defenders. The storming of the extensive area covered by tunnels would also result in high losses among the Russian attackers, at least according to the analysis of the British secret service.

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Putin’s decision to establish a blockade around the steel mill indicates a desire to contain Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol and free up Russian forces for deployment to other parts of eastern Ukraine, as of Friday. So the Kremlin boss is obviously sitting out the current military situation – while otherwise declaring the city to be conquered.

Leonid Volkov thinks it is unlikely that the storming of the steelworks has been called off completely. The Russian opposition figure in exile and confidante of the imprisoned Kremlin critic Alexej Navalny sees Putin’s appearance as merely a “Turnaround in public rhetoric”.

Volkov suspects that the presidential administration has come to the conclusion that Putin must be sold to the domestic public as a “peacemaker” instead of a “hawk” in order to score politically.

For him, the announcement by the Russian president shows that the war is not supported by the broader population, as the regime is suggesting. Volkov cites the Russian mission in Syria as an example: Putin has repeatedly announced a troop withdrawal (which he has repeatedly fallen short of) because the war did not enjoy broad support in society. “He said what people wanted to hear,” said Volkov.

Source: Stern

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