In view of the Ukraine war, there are discussions about a complete stop to Russian energy supplies. But many fear significant consequences in Germany. Russia’s ex-president Medvedev rumbles that Europe would “not survive a week” without Russian gas.
In the discussion about a complete energy embargo against Russia, the warning voices in Germany are getting louder and louder. Because of the foreseeable consequences for the people in the Federal Republic, the President of the Social Association Germany, Adolf Bauer, also rejects an embargo. “We shouldn’t take the risk of dramatic consequences for our labor market. We can only withdraw from Russia’s energy supply if we can rule out the possibility of major disruptions here,” Bauer told the “Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung”.
In view of the high inflation, Bauer has already warned of the dramatic consequences for poorer people in Germany as a result of the war in Ukraine. “It’s not just energy prices that are rising incredibly, but also rents and food prices. If this continues, the poorer population, who are not at all concerned about loss of wealth because they can hardly make ends meet anyway, will be over the suffer greatly.” Politicians cannot tolerate this.
The general manager of the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce, Martin Wansleben, also speaks out against an energy boycott. In view of the enormous dependence on Russian energy supplies, a gas embargo would be “quite a catastrophe” when you consider that gas is needed for production in the chemical, steel and pharmaceutical industries, he told “Deutschlandfunk”. It is true that everything must be done to overcome dependence on Russian gas, but it is also a “question of the moral dimension that we remain capable of action”.
Import stop for Russian coal
Because of the Russian attack on Ukraine, the EU has now decided to stop imports of Russian coal and imposed further unprecedented sanctions. There is also constant discussion about an immediate exit from Russian gas or oil. However, Germany and other countries have so far shied away from this for fear of economic damage. Employers and unions have jointly warned of the impact of a potential Russian gas supply freeze. According to Bundesbank model calculations, a complete energy embargo could plunge the German economy into recession this year.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev pointed out via Telegram on Saturday night that, according to current data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Europe can get by without Russian gas for a maximum of six months. “But seriously, they won’t last a week,” he wrote, responding to a guideline from the EU Commission on payments for Russian gas. The “consistency and principledness of the European partners is appreciated,” wrote Medvedev, adding a laughing smiley face and a clown emoji.
Warning of paradoxical consequences
Brussels said on Friday that, according to the EU Commission, EU companies should be able to continue paying for Russian gas without violating European sanctions against Moscow. A spokesman for the authority said with regard to the Russian decree, which provides for ruble payments for gas supplies to the West: “We have carefully analyzed the new decree and are in contact with the authorities of the member states and the energy companies concerned.” Appropriate guidelines were already sent to the EU states on Thursday with a view to gas imports.
Meanwhile, the Secretary General of the Economic Council of the CDU, Wolfgang Steiger, warned of the downright paradoxical consequences of a possible embargo against Russia. “We must not be naïve when it comes to unilateral cancellations of coal and oil deliveries from long-term, low-cost contracts. Russia should even benefit from this,” Steiger told the newspapers of the Funke media group. “Because it could then achieve exorbitantly higher prices on the world market for the quantities released than at present, but our energy suppliers would have to pass on the increased world market prices of other suppliers to the end consumer.”
A holistic concept for security of supply in Germany and Europe must be worked on quickly, said Steiger. “Above all, this requires a cool head. Nobody needs symbolic politics.” It is unclear what financial consequences an embargo would have for Russia. “In the worst case, there is only a shift in quantities on the world market.”
Source: Stern
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