Will Emmanuel Macron remain President of France for another five years or will the nationalist Marine Le Pen win the election for the highest office? Both outcomes are conceivable.
After an election campaign overshadowed by the Ukraine war, France is voting this Sunday on its future head of state and the basic direction of politics for the coming years.
The liberal President Emmanuel Macron, who is running for a second term in office, faces the right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen as a challenger in the run-off election. Although polls recently predicted a growing lead for the center politician, a victory for Le Pen, who is also competing with extreme right-wing demands, is not entirely ruled out. France is thus making a choice of direction that is also of overriding importance for Germany and Europe.
Since Macron and his opponent from the Rassemblement National qualified in the first round for the runoff two weeks ago and left their ten competitors behind, there has been a lot of political and social atmosphere in France. Parties, clubs, athletes and cultural workers called for a protective wall to be built against the right. Le Pen and her father, Jean-Marie, had already failed against such a wall in the final round of the election in 2017 and 2002.
dissatisfaction among the electorate
But the willingness to vote against Le Pen on principle is shrinking. After a turbulent and crisis-ridden term in office, Macron is dissatisfied among the electorate. Those on the left in particular feel alienated by Macron’s increasingly right-wing course and are annoyed that there is no alternative to his economically liberal policies. Supporters of the left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came third in the first round of the election, are therefore at odds between choosing Macron, abstaining – or not voting at all. The classic mainstream parties, the Socialists and Republicans, failed miserably with their candidates and can only help Macron to a limited extent in winning the elections.
The head of state probably did not see this tricky situation coming. Confident of victory, Macron entered the election campaign late. Husted between international summits, the French mostly only saw their president on television. Le Pen had been campaigning at the grassroots for months and had traveled around the province. While Macron was still trying to prevent the Ukraine war on the world stage, Le Pen listened to the growing concerns of his compatriots in the marketplace. She presented striking solutions to the purchasing power problems – the main topic of the election campaign.
Le Pen wants to “devil” her right-wing party
The daughter of right-wing extremist party founder Jean-Marie interwoven the coziness with the population with her strategic efforts to play down the party. With a friendly smile, the 53-year-old refrained from overly radical theses, tried to “demonize” herself and the party and make them electable, even far from the right-wing fringe. She consciously staged herself as the antithesis of a president who apparently disregards people outside of the educated middle class. After the first round of elections, however, Macron turned things around, threw himself into the street campaign and tried to make up for the direct contact he had missed.
Should the 44-year-old Macron remain president in the Élysée Palace for another five years, Germany and Europe can continue to count on a reliable partner. This is of crucial importance, especially in view of the Ukraine war and the closed western front against Russia. If Le Pen were elected, the EU would probably face an earthquake of the magnitude of Brexit or the election of Donald Trump as US President. Le Pen has already stated that she wants to distance herself from Germany and fundamentally transform the EU. Russia made them advances for the post-war period.
It won’t be easy for the winner
In France itself, numerous construction sites await the winner. Macron wants to work through a whole series of projects and postponed reforms: pensions, health care, schools, the climate crisis, purchasing power and overcoming the social divide. With Le Pen, however, there would be preference for the French over foreigners in housing policy and on the labor market. A storm of indignation and massive resistance would be programmed – but Macron should also face tough years if he wins given the pent-up frustration.
Source: Stern
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