Contrary to what was feared, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a meek speech on “Victory Day”. The Kremlin’s war record in Ukraine is not a success story.
The big bang didn’t happen. Vladimir Putin neither announced general mobilization nor officially declared war on Ukraine. Instead, the Kremlin ruler justified the military “special operation,” as the military operation in Russia should be called, with the NATO expansion, an “unacceptable threat” from which the “fatherland” had to be defended. Anything else? Oh yes: everything must be done to prevent “the horror of a global war from repeating itself.”
Russia’s president, judging by what was feared for his Victory Day address, has delivered a meek speech that goes practically no further than the well-known and bizarre rhetoric of the Kremlin.
That was not necessarily to be expected. May 9th is a special date, Russia celebrates the end of the “Great Patriotic War” and the victory over Nazi Germany with a big military parade in Moscow. Many observers assumed that Putin could use the historically charged day to sell his own warmongering in Ukraine as a success and escalate it even further.
The fact that things turned out differently is probably also due to the fact that from the Russian point of view there is not much to celebrate. Poor planning, unexpected resistance, an ailing and unmotivated army and high casualties – a “lightning victory” that Putin had obviously promised himself in Ukraine did not materialize, and there can be no talk of a “day of victory” in this regard. Chancellor Olaf Scholz: “Putin has completely miscalculated.”
The Russian War Record on “Victory Day”
On the 75th day of the invasion of Ukraine, one thing is certain: the Russian army, feared at the beginning of the invasion as a highly armed superior force, cannot overrun the country (or “liberate” it, according to the Kremlin’s interpretation).
- “Russia’s main goal has failed,” said US military expert Michael Kofman on “regime change in Ukraine.” At the beginning of the invasion, Russia was obviously building on a lightning-fast occupation of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, with the aim of forcing the Ukrainian leadership to capitulate. A failure: Ukrainian forces managed to stop the Russian advance.
- Moscow then withdrew its troops from the Kyiv area and the north in order to concentrate militarily on the Donbass region in the east. The rapid withdrawal from the areas in the north and north-east, i.e. the obvious failure of the offensive, was .
- But even there, the offensive is making slow progress: Russian troops are making progress in the Donbass region, the port city that has been contested for months, and around Kharkov, Ukrainian troops are even pushing the invaders.
Putin apparently expected a weak opponent and a quick victory, similar to the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Instead, the Russian invaders encountered an unexpectedly resilient Ukrainian army and civilian population.
In the process, downright bizarre grievances have come to light. Shortly after the war began, Western secret services intercepted Russian radio messages that …
- … could only be intercepted in the first place, because apparently not only communication is encrypted. Western secret service agents reported that officers were not trained in using radios for encrypted connections. Commanders would use standard cell phones to make calls over the Ukrainian network. As a result, Ukrainians could eavesdrop on phone calls.
- … indicate a low morale of the troops. “Sometimes we heard them (the Russian soldiers) cry in battle, sometimes they called each other names – not a sign of good morale,” said a . In addition, many soldiers appeared, at least initially, “to be operating in complete confusion. They have no idea where they are going and how to properly communicate with each other,” the Belgian continued.
- … one . For example, the reported about from the Caucasus, where they complained about broken tanks, inaccurate artillery, bent grenade launchers and missing radios.
Nothing came of the planned blitzkrieg and victory, experts – which is already resulting in heavy casualties for Russia.
- , up to 40,000 Russian soldiers were killed, injured, captured or missing within the first month of the war. At the end of March, the defense alliance assumed that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers had died. The British Ministry of Defense was also speaking in the Russian army at this time. The Ukrainian armed forces even count almost 25,650 Russian soldiers killed. According to official information from Moscow, 1,351 Russian soldiers have been killed so far. The information cannot be independently verified.
- According to reports from Kyiv, the Ukrainian army has been at war since the beginning of the war. US intelligence information is also said to have helped, as reported.
- The “Moskva”, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, .
- Since the beginning of the war, Russia has lost 1,145 tanks, 199 combat aircraft and 158 helicopters. Twelve warships and dozens of anti-aircraft weapons and transport vehicles were also destroyed. Again, this information cannot be independently verified.
Meanwhile, the western alliance is moving closer together, and Ukraine’s supporters are more united and determined than ever. Russia is becoming more and more isolated.
“I am deeply convinced that Putin will not win the war,” said Chancellor on Sunday. The USA formulates , but all Western allies are prepared for one thing.
The fact that the Russian president failed to live up to the West’s worst fears on “Victory Day” need not be a reason for relief.
Recently, the threatening gestures made by Putin and his Kremlin farce have become more and more blatant and shrill, for example to practice against overly committed supporters of Ukraine and to keep the danger of one.
Specialists in nuclear weapons, Russia researchers and foreign politicians are of the opinion that a Russian nuclear attack is taking place, but a further escalation cannot be ruled out – also or precisely because the commitment to Putin is constantly increasing and there has been no success story so far.
Nevertheless, May 9, which was supposed to be a “Day of Victory,” was also a black day, at least for Putin.
Sources: “The Mirror” ( / / ), , , , , , British Ministry of Defense (), , , “The Kyiv Independent” (), , , , , , ,
Source: Stern
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