The price of the zero Covid strategy is high: chaos and unrest from lockdowns lasting weeks. Broken Supply Chains. standstill operations. And yet China is barely getting the outbreaks under control.
According to Chinese scientists, a complete lifting of the zero-Covid strategy in China would trigger a “tsunami” wave of infections with 1.55 million deaths.
According to their study in the science magazine “Nature Medicine”, there could be 112 million symptomatic infections within six months. The intensive care units would be overwhelmed: the need would be 15.6 times higher than the capacity. Although 91 percent of the billion people are vaccinated and 53 percent are also boosted, outbreaks cannot be prevented.
In a worst-case scenario, the highly contagious omicron variant would have the potential to lead to 5.1 million hospital admissions. 2.7 million patients would then be in intensive care units, write the authors led by Hongjie Yu, who conduct research primarily at Fudan University in Shanghai, but also in the USA. Because of the age disparity in China’s vaccine coverage, most of the dead would be unvaccinated people over 60.
Resentment in China is growing
With their warning, the scientists support the controversial tough Covid policy of the Beijing leadership, but also outline the dilemma in which China finds itself and show possible ways out. Dissatisfaction in the country with the tough measures is growing. Tens of thousands are stuck in quarantine camps under sometimes difficult conditions. There is a problem with food deliveries. Medical care is limited.
In the event of a fire, fire engines cannot get through barriers. Cargo traffic through the world’s largest port in Shanghai has collapsed because trucks are already missing. Supply chains are broken. Most of the 26 million residents of the port metropolis of Shanghai and tens of millions in other metropolises, especially in northeast China, have been in lockdown for more than a month.
After two years of largely successful virus control and isolation, China is now a victim of its own success, as there is no infection at all. “The lack of vaccination protection and the absence of the virus mean that the Chinese population looks similar to the entire world population at the beginning of the pandemic,” said Timo Ulrichs, an expert on global health at the Akkon University of Human Sciences in Berlin. “In view of the very high infectivity of the omicron variant, the zero-Covid strategy can only be maintained with ever stricter measures,” said Ulrichs. «The question remains: «What comes after that?»
The researchers led by Hongjie Yu also show how the number of dead and sick could be reduced with an adapted strategy. Vaccination, including boosters and campaigns for older people over 60, as well as additional antiviral therapies and contact restrictions played a “key role”. There must be a combination because none of the proposals alone would be able to reduce the number of deaths to the level of normal flu waves (88,000 deaths).
Zero Covid policy not a permanent solution
“It is questionable whether or for how long a zero-Covid policy can be maintained,” write the authors of the new study. As recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), all nations should prepare to “design their own path for the transition from a pandemic to an endemic phase”.
After a “dynamic”, somewhat more targeted zero-Covid strategy was adopted in August 2021 because of the more contagious virus variants, China is now debating how long this procedure can continue, the authors believe. The debate is shifting to containment strategies on how the burden on the health system can be reduced. Due to the large differences in the country, however, strategies would also have to be tailored differently from region to region.
He does not share the fear that the healthcare system would be overloaded immediately after a cautious opening in China, said Ulrichs. “It would depend entirely on the right strategy, and there are good role models in other countries.” It would be advisable for China to “let the virus into the country with careful openings”. At the same time, there should be nationwide vaccination with the four vaccines approved in the West. The Chinese vaccines “do not appear to produce sufficient immunity”.
Source: Stern
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