The US secret services are apparently well informed about the Russian war plans – and not always completely discreet when communicating their knowledge. President Biden is alarmed.
Are there any reliable certainties in times of war? Practically every day the speed at the front changes, new questions arise about the Russian warmongering in Ukraine and the (actual) intentions of President Vladimir Putin.
In the past few days and weeks, the US secret services have given a surprising number of answers to a large number of questions. You seem well informed. In the eyes of the Kremlin ruler, who counts uncertainty and insecurity among his arsenal of weapons, perhaps too well.
Did Moscow actually fire a new type of hypersonic missile at Odessa? The US Secret Services. Could Putin’s strategic goals have changed given the ? The US intelligence agencies , he could go further, in the face of impending defeat. And now? If the President is betting that the West’s resolve will wane over time, .
And these are just some of the US intelligence that have been communicated in just the past 72 hours.
The Russian war of aggression has removed the basis for many supposed certainties, insofar as this one too: that intelligence services act quietly and draw exclusive conclusions from the information collected. In a short briefing he gave his current assessment of the situation.
The unusually public approach serves several purposes, serving as a counter to targeted disinformation, but also as a message to the invaders that nothing goes unnoticed.
Sometimes the collected knowledge turns out to be frighteningly concrete, about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sometimes as a vague prognosis, the . However, it becomes particularly tricky when this knowledge also proves deadly.
Two explosive reports from the US secret services, one concern
For example, the United States had provided Ukraine with information that led to the location and killing of several Russian generals. “US intelligence agencies are helping Ukraine kill Russian generals,” , which bases its report on testimonies from several senior government officials.
The explosiveness of the message was obvious, as shown not least by the . It is true that the US is providing Ukraine with information. But: They neither provide information about the whereabouts of Russian officers on the battlefield, nor participate in the decisions of the Ukrainian army. “Ukraine combines the information they get from us and others on the battlefield. And then they make their own decisions and act,” Kirby said.
Teaser picture: Picture Alliance/ Mikhail Metzel
Less than 48 hours later, several media, citing unnamed sources, reported that the “Moskva” – the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet – had been sunk with the help of US intelligence information. Hundreds of men are said to have been on the important missile cruiser, and dozens of people are believed to have died. This time, the White House spokeswoman said, “We have not provided Ukraine with specific targeting information for the ‘Moskva’,” calling the reports exaggerated. “We had no prior knowledge of the Ukrainians’ intention to attack the ship.”
No matter how crucial the US intelligence ultimately was for the Ukrainian army, the releases illustrate two things. Firstly, the US is supporting Ukraine more extensively than was previously known. Secondly, the United States wants to avoid the impression that it is (in)directly interfering in the fighting.
A highly sensitive matter
Because every step could be one too many. It is in the , who is a war party and who is not. However, Russia’s president has declared it a waste of time with his war of aggression, which violates international law.
This poses a dilemma for Ukraine’s allies, who support the country massively with weapons and money: when the threshold for formal entry into the war has been crossed is (also) decided by the aggressor from Russia.
Any support for Ukraine will be carefully weighed and agreed, as will Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) so as not to risk a further escalation of the situation. Already, Putin and his Kremlin pranksters are threatening, or thinking out loud, overly committed supporters of Ukraine.
For the United States, the situation is highly sensitive: on the one hand, it wants to support Ukraine as best it can, but on the other hand, it does not want to become a war party itself. US President Joe Biden also seems to be aware of this dilemma.
After the recent piercings, he is said to have emphasized the importance of his secret services, but also issued a warning. The President reportedly got the media leaks in phone calls with CIA Director William Burns, National Intelligence Coordinator Avril Haines and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Biden demanded that the piercing of information must stop, as two government officials reported to the US broadcaster.
Apparently, the US President thinks that some employees in his intelligence services – at least with one this year – are a little too lax. After all: A comment on the president’s power word rejected the ruffled compared to NBC News. Very discreet.
Source: Stern
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