North Rhine-Westphalia has long ceased to be the “homeland” of social democracy. The SPD and CDU have alternated in government in recent electoral periods. A CDU/FDP coalition has governed the most populous federal state since 2017. A new state parliament will be elected this Sunday. The race is completely open. The CDU and SPD are neck and neck in polls. The election in North Rhine-Westphalia is also known as the “small federal election” and is considered an important test for the federal parties.
A total of 1,375 people are applying for a seat in the state parliament. Five parliamentary groups are currently represented in the state parliament. In 2017, a total of 199 MPs moved into the NRW parliament due to overhang and compensation mandates. A CDU/FDP coalition replaced the red-green coalition and has a majority of just one vote.
The CDU won the 2017 election with 33 percent ahead of the SPD (31.2 percent). The FDP came third with 12.6 percent, followed by the AfD, which entered the state parliament for the first time with 7.4 percent. The Greens fell to 6.4 percent in 2017. While the topic of Corona receded into the background, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine recently shaped the election campaign. Energy security and the phase-out of coal, inflation and increased fuel and energy prices as well as climate change are the major issues alongside school policy, internal security and affordable housing. The resignation of Environment Minister Ursula Heinen-Esser (CDU), who celebrated with members of the government in Mallorca a few days after the flood disaster in July 2021, no longer played a role in the final sprint of the election campaign.
Tight race between Christian and Social Democrats
The evening of the election should therefore be exciting, because numerous polls in recent weeks predict a very close race between the CDU and SPD. Most recently, the surveys of various opinion research institutes saw a small lead for the CDU. The Christian Democrats could therefore come to 30 to 32 percent and the SPD to 28 to 29 percent. The Greens are in polls at 16 to 18 percent and could achieve their best state election result. The FDP could only count on 6 to 8 percent, the AfD with 6 to 8 percent. With around 3 percent, the left would still miss entering the state parliament.
A new edition of the black-yellow coalition is mathematically unlikely, also because of the weakness of the FDP. But there are several options for the next state government. According to surveys, in addition to a rather unpopular grand coalition of CDU and SPD, a black-green alliance or a Jamaica alliance of CDU, Greens and FDP would be possible. The SPD could also form a traffic light coalition with the Greens and FDP, as in the federal government. According to individual surveys, it could also be just about enough for a red-green majority.
Prime Minister Wüst would like to continue governing with the FDP, but the Liberals, like the Greens, are keeping all options open. Given their strength, the Greens could become the “kingmaker” in forming a government. SPD top candidate Kuchaty can imagine the formation of a traffic light coalition like in the federal government.
Source: Stern
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