A few weeks before the general election at the end of September, surveys try to give a prospect of the outcome. But the question of the reliability of these forecasts arises again and again.
In a new Forsa poll on the federal election, the Union lost three percentage points compared to the previous week and now only comes to 23 percent.
The SPD, on the other hand, gained three percentage points and reached 19 percent, according to the RTL / ntv trend barometer published on Wednesday. This is the best value since April 2018.
The Greens remained unchanged at 20 percent, just one point ahead of the Social Democrats. Nothing changed for the AfD either with ten percent. The FDP gained one percentage point to 12 percent, the Left lost one point to seven percent.
A majority would therefore have four alliances in the new parliament: black-yellow-green, a coalition of CDU / CSU, SPD and FDP, of Greens, SPD and FDP and an alliance of Greens, SPD and Left.
Election polls are generally always fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. The institute gives a statistical margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the outcome of the election.
In a poll by the opinion research institute Insa, the Union had won 25.5 percent of the vote a few days ago, while the Greens and the SPD had received 17.5 percent.
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