Some say this, others say this: Once again, world politics is arguing about whether and how Vladimir Putin can be dealt with. Should the former chancellor’s attempts at mediation be a reminder?
One word keeps coming up in politics: humility. Officials and dignitaries practice it, for example after elections or times of crisis, all too often one is linked to the other. Anyone who shows humility in politics wants to signal respect and insight in order to give even unpleasant circumstances a meaningful purpose. In this respect, humiliation can be understood as the blatant opposite of that, which can at most cause madness.
Emmanuel Macron sees this as a great danger, his recent statements leave no doubt about that. With a view to the Ukraine war, the French President warns that one must not “humiliate Russia”, i.e. degrade or offend it, in order not to block a diplomatic way out. Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz warns not to let the thread of talks with Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin break off. Both are sharply criticized for their attitude. A good connection, to the aggressor of all places?
Andrzej Duda was “surprised” by the course taken by his counterparts. Poland’s President. “These talks are useless,” he told the newspaper. “They only legitimize a person responsible for crimes committed by the Russian army in Ukraine.” Duda cemented his own stance with a historical comparison: “Did anyone talk to Adolf Hitler like that in World War II? Did anyone say that Adolf Hitler had to be able to save face?”. He doesn’t know such voices. “Everyone knew: you have to defeat him.”
After 106 days of the Russian campaign against Ukraine, the dispute is picking up speed as to how the warmonger from the Kremlin, who has so far seemed to refuse any form of crisis diplomacy, can be dealt with and how a possible end to the fighting could be achieved.
Some call it so, others so
Some call it so, others so. Macron says: “The situation is worrying.” He can no longer count the talks he’s had with Putin since December, saying they were “all in all, probably a hundred hours,” in all transparency and at the request of Ukraine. “One must not humiliate Russia so that we can find a diplomatic way out the day the fighting ends,” Macron said. He was convinced that this was France’s role, “to be a mediating force.”
He is obviously supported by Chancellor Scholz, who was last on the line – and then saw himself defending the joint phone calls. The talks are important to make it clear to Putin again and again that his strategy of attacking Ukraine is not working, on Tuesday in the Lithuanian city of Vilnius.
It was quite a remarkable appointment. During his visit, Scholz met the heads of government of the three Baltic states. The central topic was the Russian war of aggression and securing NATO’s eastern flank. The joint efforts in the fight against Russia were emphasized, but the differences also came to light.
“Our goal is clear: Russia must lose this war and Ukraine must win it,” said Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš – a statement that Scholz has not uttered with such clarity to this day. Like Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, he criticized Macron’s remark that one should not humiliate Russia. “We will humiliate Russia in the spirit of Macron, both militarily and economically,” he said. “Russia has humiliated itself with this war.” Referring to the talks with Putin, he added that dealing with a dictator is very complicated. The Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas had previously criticized the phone calls.
In this respect, the date also symbolizes the meeting of two schools of thought. One is based on the assumption that the West should show Putin a way out in order to at least reduce the risks of a further escalation of the war. The other sees it as simply wasted effort and calls for more courageous action. Alone: What have the mediation attempts achieved so far? A what-if scenario that is almost impossible to decipher.
“Vladimir Putin doesn’t need our help for that”
Nevertheless, observers express their skepticism as to whether showing Putin a “way out” would actually help:
- “Opening up a face-saving way out for Putin is the wrong goal“, wrote the historian Anne Spiegel in a . “Our goal must be Putin’s defeat.” Putin neither wants to end the war, nor can it be assumed that Russia would keep to the agreements that have been negotiated. “Basically, even the quick defeat – or to use President Macron’s words again: humiliation – the only hope for long-term stability in Europe,” said Spiegel. “Putin doesn’t just have to end the war. He must come to the conclusion that the war was a terrible mistake, one that must never be repeated.”
- “For Putin, this war is not between Russia and Ukraine‘ wrote political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya in one that Ukraine is “just a hostage”. “Putin will continue to escalate the war until the West changes its approach to the so-called Russia problem,” Stanovaya said. The West therefore misunderstands the problem: “In its efforts to stop Russia’s war, it is concentrating on Moscow’s artificial pretexts for its invasion of Ukraine.” And overlook “Putin’s obsession with the so-called Western threat – as well as his willingness to force the West into a dialogue on Russian terms through further escalation.”
- “There is no point in protecting Putin from feeling that he might lose the war“, wrote the historian Timothy Snyder in a , “he’ll find out for himself.” Especially since he has the domestic reporting under control, which could announce a Russian victory at any time. “He doesn’t need our help for that,” said Snyder. That’s why it is likewise “pointless to create an ‘exit’ in the real world when Putin just needs one in a virtual world that he fully controls.” Assuming that Russia has to be given a way out would only prolong the war and from the ” simple necessity of a Russian defeat.”
It is also difficult to say with absolute certainty whether attempts at mediation are useful or not. The course of war and the speed on the battlefield change every day, reliable certainties are practically non-existent. And it has apparently never been so in dealings with Russia, as former Chancellor Angela Merkel recently explained.
On Tuesday, Merkel tried to explain to her what she had done to prevent the escalation that could be expected, but was ultimately unable to prevent it. The rest is history: Putin has responded to what he saw as a humiliation of Russia. Despite all attempts by the former chancellor to mediate.
Asked about the benefit of Merkel’s intervention today, she replied: “I don’t have the impression that it’s of any use at the moment.” Putin made a decision that she considers fatal and catastrophic. “Therefore, in my view, there is little to discuss at the moment.”
Source: Stern
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