The consequences of the Ukraine war affect the entire world and almost all areas of life. The “turning point” is not only a learning process for the EU, but also for China and a Balkan country. An overview of the aftermath of the war in three episodes. Part III.
Even before the corona virus paralyzed parts of the world, the trade war instigated by then US President Donald Trump hung over the global economy like the sword of Damocles. As the pandemic hit and lockdown followed lockdown, production and supply chains also collapsed. At the beginning of the year, when the worst appeared to be over, Russian troops invaded Ukraine, another blow to the burgeoning economy.
What’s more, aggressor Russia is no longer an energy supplier because of the sanctions. Grain is no longer coming from Ukraine, and the prices of bread and fuel are skyrocketing all over the world. Countries dependent on Eastern European wheat face unprecedented starvation.
These are just a few of the countless consequences of the double crisis of the corona pandemic and the Ukraine war. The invasion of Russia could actually be the turning point that Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke about and as the following examples show:
price increases
High demand with delivery bottlenecks, rising energy prices, supply problems with grain – this nasty mix is one reason for the highest inflation rate in decades. The price increase is currently between six and seven percent. Heating and fuel have in some cases become 50 percent more expensive, and food by around ten percent. And not just in Germany, but worldwide. The USA has therefore dared to take the biggest interest rate hike in almost 30 years and increased the key interest rate by 0.75 percentage points.
Although interest rate hikes counteract inflation, they also increase the risk of the economy stalling. Some experts therefore fear “stagflation”: rising prices in combination with a stagnating or shrinking economy. The last time this had happened on a larger scale was in the 1970s.
The situation of the refugees is becoming more dramatic
Never since the Second World War have so many people been fleeing as they are now. More than 100 million people have had to leave their homes because of wars, conflicts and other disasters. The refugee agency UNHCR speaks of a “dramatic milestone”. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is just one of many crises, but according to the UNHCR it is the largest and fastest growing since the refugee agency was founded 70 years ago.
The number of people fleeing has been increasing for many years: At the end of December 2021, 89.3 million people were fleeing wars, violence, persecution and human rights violations, eight percent more than a year earlier and more than twice as many as ten years earlier. After Turkey, Colombia, Uganda and Pakistan, Germany was the largest host country, with 1.3 million hosts.
Unexpected EU eastward enlargement
Up until February 24, hardly anyone would have guessed that Ukraine would become a candidate for accession to the European Union in the foreseeable future. That the country would or could become a member at some point was expressed everywhere and often as a wish. However, the situation in the country (corruption, rule of law, conflict with Russia) de facto postponed implementation until the next day.
Immediately after the Russian war of aggression, the country then applied for acceptance into the EU. After a visit by the heads of government of France, Italy and Germany in mid-June, EU boss Ursula von der Leyen recommended that Ukraine be declared a candidate for membership. The decision is made by the representatives of the members and they tie their consent to the green light for other countries willing to join, such as Bosnia-Herzegovina, Moldova and Georgia. Even if their accession lies in the distant future, Putin’s war could reduce the zones of influence he is demanding instead of expanding them.
Look at Putin and Russia
The West, but especially Germany, had a somewhat, to put it positively, dreamy view of Russia and its president. Despite the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the war in Georgia six years earlier. While the younger generation in particular in the former Warsaw Pact and post-Soviet countries constantly warned about the former “Big Brother,” the local governments mostly demonstrated great accommodation to the Kremlin. But that’s all gone since the Ukraine war – Russia is considered a pariah state by part of the world.
As a result of the obviously wrong assessment of the military situation and the political mood in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has also lost his image as a strategist. His army doesn’t seem to be as overpowering and powerful as many assumed. Putin will have happily factored in some of the consequences of the war (gas and raw materials crisis), and accepted some with approval (sanctions) – but most observers agree that the invasion of Ukraine was a “horrible mistake by Russia,” like Britain’s Chief of Staff Tony Radakin put it.
Training for China and its military
The Chinese government is likely to be watching the war very closely. Not only because she wants to study the reactions to a war of aggression and the political mechanisms it sets in motion, but also because the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has problems similar to those of the Russian military: corruption and too close ties to politics. Many of the Kremlin army’s lack of equipment and motivation are attributed to the rampant culture of bribery. China has been trying to rid its army of corrupt generals for a long time. The Ukraine war should make it clear to the state power what damage corrupt soldiers can cause.
Since the People’s Liberation Army was modeled on the Soviet armed forces, it also plays an important role in politics. This is particularly evident at management levels, which were filled more according to party membership than according to qualifications and also act in a highly hierarchical and inflexible manner. In times of war, the whole “extent of incompetence due to clientelism comes to the fore,” writes the Berlin “Tagesspiegel”.
Sources: DPA, AFP, , , “”, , , “”, “”, , “”, “”, “”
Source: Stern
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