For the first time in a year, the SPD overtook the Greens in the “Sunday trend” of the opinion research institute Insa. A traffic light coalition could bring Olaf Scholz to the Chancellery.
Six weeks before the federal election, according to a survey, the SPD overtook the Greens in favor of the voters and could move into the Chancellery with a traffic light coalition. In the “Sunday trend”, which the polling institute Insa collects weekly for “Bild am Sonntag”, the Social Democrats come to 20 percent this week – two percentage points more than in the previous week.
According to “BamS”, the Greens keep their value from the previous week of 18 percent. The FDP also remains stable at twelve percent. A traffic light coalition would have 50 percent and a parliamentary majority. It is the first time in a year that the SPD is stronger than the Greens in the “Sunday trend”.
The downward trend of the CDU / CSU continues meanwhile. The Union loses one point in the “Sunday trend” and now comes to 25 percent. According to “BamS”, the AfD remains at eleven percent, the left at seven percent. A black-red or black-green coalition of two would not have a majority. For example, a Jamaica coalition of the Union, Greens and FDP or an alliance of CDU, SPD and FDP would be possible. The other parties would vote seven percent of the respondents (minus one).
29 percent are for Olaf Scholz as Chancellor
In the direct election question for Chancellor, SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz is now clearly ahead in the “Sunday trend”. This week 29 percent (plus two percentage points) would elect him to be Chancellor. This is the highest value that Insa measured for a candidate in this election campaign.
Green candidate Annalena Baerbock, who started the election campaign 14 weeks ago with an approval rate of 26 percent, comes, as in the previous week, to an intention to vote of 13 percent. CDU boss Armin Laschet can gain a percentage point and would be directly elected by 15 percent of those surveyed this week. 30 percent said they did not want to vote for any of the three candidates.
For the survey, Insa interviewed a total of 1,450 citizens from August 9th to 13th. On August 13, an additional 1002 people were interviewed. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the outcome of the election.
However, the Insa survey confirms a trend that other opinion research institutes had recently identified. In the latest ZDF “Politbarometer” of the Elections Research Group, the SPD achieved its best value in almost three years with 19 percent (plus 3 percentage points). It draws level with the Greens, who also land at 19 percent (minus 2). If the Bundestag election were to take place next Sunday, the CDU / CSU would come to 26 percent (minus 2), according to the “Politbarometer”.
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