The Taliban have taken power in Afghanistan. Desperate people are looking for access to airplanes at Kabul airport. Could many migrants come again?
With the fall of Kabul, the warning can be heard again, especially from politicians in the Union. “2015 must not repeat itself,” demanded CDU Vice Thomas Strobl, who is also Baden-Württemberg’s Minister of the Interior.
People who have now fled Afghanistan should find shelter in neighboring countries, which should receive international support. Similar warnings were formulated by CDU Vice and Federal Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner and Union Chancellor candidate and NRW Prime Minister Armin Laschet (CDU), who advocated the admission of refugees in limited numbers.
But is it really to be expected that after the Taliban’s triumphant advance, people will come again on a similar scale as in 2015 and 2016? At that time, more than 1.1 million asylum seekers reached Germany, many of them from Syria, a country with civil war. Many questions are still open.
How many people are on the run in Afghanistan?
The number of internally displaced persons rose massively at the beginning of May, i.e. the start of the withdrawal of international troops and several offensives by the Taliban. First people had fled from the districts to the provincial capitals, when the fighting began in the cities as well, then many continued to the capital Kabul. According to the UN, 390,000 Afghans had left their villages and towns due to fighting by the beginning of August.
According to estimates by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in early August, around 30,000 people were leaving the country every week at that time.
It is unclear how the refugee movements will develop after the actual takeover of power by the Taliban. On Sunday, a UN report said that more internally displaced persons in Kabul indicated that they would return to their villages in the north of the country.
Could people find shelter in neighboring countries?
The willingness to accept refugees from Afghanistan in the region is not particularly great. Tajikistan at least wants to accept refugees and is setting up a camp for this purpose. As recently as the beginning of last month, more than 1,000 Afghan soldiers sought refuge in the Central Asian state. However, like Uzbekistan, it has also strengthened its border security.
Pakistan, where, according to the UNHCR, around 1.4 million Afghans already live as registered refugees, is increasingly isolating itself. The border fence erected by Pakistan between the two countries is practically complete. The interior minister had announced that refugee camps would be set up on the Afghan side of the border.
On Tuesday he said that regardless of the current volatile situation in Afghanistan, there was no refugee crisis or “burden” to be faced.
Iran has also been home to hundreds of thousands of Afghans for decades. According to experts, the number of unreported cases is significantly higher. The country is struggling with the corona pandemic and an economic crisis. It is therefore unlikely that the government will allow many Afghans into the country. It is unclear how Iran will avoid illegal border crossings by refugees without the use of force. Because of the miserable conditions in Iran, many Afghans are trying to make their way to Turkey, which borders Iran in the east.
What could Germany or the EU do?
If the European Union wants to avoid another flight in their direction and the people there should find a perspective, talks with Iran and Pakistan are necessary, says the migration researcher Steffen Angenendt from the Science and Politics Foundation. “The demands also from Iran and Pakistan for humanitarian support will probably increase – especially since the countries have seen what is possible with Turkey as an example.” Turkey receives money from the EU to take care of Syrian refugees.
Angenendt also calls for help for the people who are on the run within Afghanistan. In addition, the federal government must campaign for an international initiative for the humanitarian admission of those Afghans who are particularly threatened by human rights violations, especially women. It is about manageable numbers, so Angenendt. “We have the capacity for this in Germany.”
How is the situation in Turkey?
Turkey has been both a destination and a transit country for Afghans for years. In addition to the 3.6 million Syrians, it is estimated that up to half a million Afghans live in the country. Erdogan is now talking about a new “wave of migrants” from Afghans via Iran. He does not want to tolerate that. “Entry and exit will be completely prevented,” he recently emphasized. To do this, the country is building a wall on the eastern border with Iran.
Despite the lockdown, local observers estimate that at least a few hundred Afghans from Iran make it across the border every day. Locals also make money from smuggling in the mountainous area, which is difficult to control.
Can’t the migrants stay in Turkey then? After all, the country receives money from the EU.
Syrians in Turkey are under temporary protection. Ankara receives financial support for them as part of the so-called refugee pact. The EU wants to pay the country another three billion euros, this time the money could also go to projects for Afghans. In practice, however, support could be difficult.
Many Afghans are not even registered, says human rights lawyer Mahmut Kacan, who campaigns for the rights of migrants in the border province of Van. Afghans who are particularly at risk could apply for conditional protection status in Turkey for resettlement to a third country, but many feared being deported and were living illegally. Turkey is therefore often only a transit country and the actual destination is Europe, said Kacan. However, months or even years could pass before the onward journey.
“Turkey plays the key role in answering the question of whether more Afghans will soon be entering the European Union or Germany,” says Angenendt. “Their behavior is the great unknown.” The EU must therefore hold further talks with the country about the care of refugees, as well as with Iran and Pakistan.
Last year Erdogan declared the border to Greece to be temporarily open for migrants, and thousands made their way to Europe. And the mood is currently changing in view of the weakening economy. Last week a mob roamed the streets of the capital Ankara, throwing stones at Syrian houses and looting shops.
What about onward travel to the EU and Germany?
Greece, as Turkey’s eastern neighbor and a country on the EU’s western external border, wants to stop possible Afghan migrants. This is what Migration Minister Notis Mitarakis said on Tuesday in view of the dramatic developments in Afghanistan. “We do not want our country to be the gateway to the EU for people who want to break into Europe,” said Mitarakis on the Greek state television (ERT). Greece monitors sea and land borders with numerous patrols and prevents migrants from crossing over to the Greek islands.
Even those who make it to Greece have a harder time than they did a few years ago. Hungary has erected a metal fence on the border with Serbia. The police in the EU countries Hungary, Bulgaria or Croatia will take people out of the country if they catch them.
According to figures from the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, more than 12,000 asylum seekers arrived in Germany in July, almost 19 percent more than in the previous month. The largest group among those who applied for asylum for the first time were Syrians (4,759 people), followed by Afghans (2,353).
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