Why did Afghanistan fall into the hands of the Taliban so quickly? And why was the West so poorly prepared for this? Who knew what when? Those who should have known are being criticized: This is known from the role of the secret services.
It will probably only be clear in a few years when the Afghanistan fiasco began. Was it in June 2011 after a US special unit brought Osama bin Laden around the corner and Barack Obama promised an orderly withdrawal of his troops? Was it last February when the US government was taking? Or was it in April, when Joe Biden named September 11th as a withdrawal date for the US troops? One thing is already certain: every single decision by the NATO powers was based on the findings of their secret services – but why did they not see that the Taliban would take Afghanistan in a coup?
Ex-US diplomat: “withdrawal is a mistake”
If one believes the ex-ambassador and US special envoy for Afghanistan, James Dobbins, then at least the advisers of US President Biden agreed that withdrawing the soldiers would be a mistake. Biden made his decision against the recommendation of the secret services, the diplomat said recently in an interview with the stern. This coincides with findings from the US media, according to which the secret services are said to have drawn attention to the dangers of the withdrawal.
According to information from the “”, the CIA, NSA and Co. warned of a rapid collapse of the Afghan military and a growing risk for the capital Kabul in July of this year. On the other hand, the assessments of the US military leadership, which can fall back on reports from nine intelligence services, are different. Chief of Staff Mark Milley last said, “There was nothing that I saw, or anyone else, that indicated a collapse of this army and government within eleven days.”
According to him, there were various scenarios for Afghanistan, including a rapid takeover of power by the Taliban after a collapse of the military and government. “But the timeline for a quick collapse was widely estimated to be weeks, months, or even years after we left,” said Milley. Why the Pentagon had come to this conclusion is likely to raise uncomfortable questions. Also because the US media quoted anonymous secret service agents weeks ago, according to which the Taliban had significantly accelerated their pace of conquest.
British rehearsed evacuation in July
The British spies from MI6 may have been further. As early as July, the former head of the secret service warned against withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. This is a serious mistake that would strengthen the jihadists in the country. And just three weeks before the Taliban came to power, the British special unit SAS was planning the evacuation of the embassy by helicopter just for this case. “The Taliban already have cells in Kabul. Many fear that they could control the entrances to the embassy buildings and that the helicopters would then be forced to land on the roof,” an informant told the newspaper “The Mirror”.
The case of Afghanistan is also bitter for the Federal Intelligence Service: “What weapons and how many fighters the radical Islamic Taliban have at their disposal: The BND was usually well informed about this. As far as these hard military facts are concerned, the German foreign intelligence service had a reputation for keeping precise records “, now about the role of the German foreign intelligence service. But beyond this detailed knowledge, the German analysts were not able to see the whole picture. Their conclusion was that the Taliban were “not interested” in taking the capital Kabul quickly.
Warnings from the German embassy
What exactly led the BND employees to this assessment was also dealt with by the parliamentary control committee of the Bundestag in a special session. BND boss Bruno Kahl also took part. After the hearing, member of the committee and FDP parliamentary group vice-chairman Stephan Thomae said that the BND was “completely misjudged with regard to Afghanistan”. Nevertheless, “it must be investigated everywhere: Where was there insufficient information, incorrect evaluations or wrong political conclusions.” The Green Konstantin von Notz, who also sits on the control committee, said there were still many questions unanswered. This applies “with regard to all services and authorities that were responsible for assessing the situation”.
The question of why the warnings from the German embassy in Kabul were ignored by the federal government will also have to be clarified. “There have been indications from the German embassy that after July 4th – after the international troop presence ended – the situation changed and worsened. how quickly this development should take place “, commented Foreign Minister Heiko Maas recently on the state of knowledge.
Sources:, DPA, AFP, “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, “”,, Deutsche Welle, “New York Times”
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