Why things are going well for Olaf Scholz – and what that could change

What should he say Nothing, that’s the rule of the game in the “Interview without words” of the. The facial expressions and gestures of the counterpart are required. And, addressed to Olaf Scholz: “You say you can be Chancellor. What can you not?”

The SPD chancellor candidate holds a glass ball in the camera lens as a wordless answer. He cannot predict the future, that is to say. Too bad. Because if a question arises that one would like to know the answer to, it is: What does the future hold for Scholz?

A look into the demoscopic crystal ball gives hope to the Social Democrats: The SPD is now lying, its top candidate would be far ahead in a direct election. A few weeks before the federal election, those are prospects that worry.

For a long time Scholz was ridiculed because he seemed to be the only one who believed himself to be the future chancellor. Suddenly the office seems close enough to touch. Why is it going so well?

Scholz’s unwavering solo race

Also because the others are not doing so well. Sure: Scholz made mistakes. G20 summit, Cum-Ex, Wirecard. But they are far behind, it seems, at least further than the mistakes of his challenger (Annalena Baerbock, Greens) and his challenger (Armin Laschet, Union). “The other two candidates have dismantled themselves,” sums up the political scientist Thomas Jäger from the University of Cologne stern. “They were tested and failed.” Baerbock communicated their former soaring in the basement, Laschet laughed away the favor of the voters in the flood area. “Scholz just didn’t do anything,” said Jäger. “That was enough because his opponents beat themselves.”

Another reason is the disappearance of the SPDas political scientist calls it hunter. “Scholz tackles it” is the campaign slogan of the Social Democrats – to be seen in Scholz advertisements, Scholz videos and on Scholz posters. “Clear focus on the candidate for chancellor”,. “Olaf Scholz is the driving force behind this election campaign.”

Just a year ago, when Scholz was elected candidate, the Chancellery Mission was dismissed as a hopeless undertaking. Now the Social Democrats’ plan seems to be working: If the ballot box is imminent, and with it the end of the Merkel era, voters would increasingly ask themselves the question of competence and experience – and end up with Scholz, the experienced member of the government.

“In this phase of the election campaign, Olaf Scholz benefits greatly from the fact that he is the most prominent candidate in terms of national politics,” says the zum stern. With him, voters would most likely know what to expect. In contrast to Baerbock and Laschet, “because they are much more blank pages”. In addition, the SPD campaign succeeded in staging him as a maker in the flood disaster and a fighter for justice on the international stage (keyword:).

The overall result: The “seemingly solo chancellor candidate Scholz”, as political scientist Jäger calls him, who exudes competence and experience – and is actually a “sham” because those he has to take into consideration afterwards hide in the election campaign. ” If the SPD co-party leader Saskia Esken and Vice Kevin Kühnert were to be seen every day, who are politically further to the left than the moderate middle candidate, Scholz would have “far fewer chances”. Because: whoever chooses him, votes with them. More and more politicians of the Union are now pointing this out (how ) to mobilize their conservative core electorate.

But so far Scholz has been able to campaign almost undeterred, as it appears. Has it been underestimated? “Scholz benefited from the old war tactic of killing someone and made an opportunity out of necessity,” says the zum stern. When Scholz was proclaimed a candidate, the SPD was declared dead (once again): The polls were in the basement, Scholz was written off, was considered unloved by his own party. The vehemence with which he repeatedly emphasized that he wanted to become chancellor seemed strange to many. “Almost out of pity, nobody really took care of him,” Wallis analyzes. “The campaign strategists of the CDU and the Greens have pounced on each other.”

The Union declared the Greens to be the main opponent (and), the Greens worked their way through on and on. At the same time, no opportunity was missed to scandalize every mistake made by the other. “That is why the failure discourses about Laschet and Baerbock have been shown to dominate in the media,” said Wallis. “There was simply a better story to tell here, namely an exciting duel.” And not “dragging the SPD’s agony out of the box for what felt like a millionth time”. And Scholz could almost run a solo race.

“The trend is now a friend of the comrades”

What can still go wrong, so shortly before the federal election? Quite a few, say the experts.

Scholz must avoid the voters being reminded that he is the SPD candidate that the party did not want to be chairmansays political scientist Jäger. “He has to keep his distance to his past and the current disasters.” Should the party be loud or should a scandal break out, approval could fall as quickly as it rose. “And he has to build on his luck to be able to continue running unmolested by the other parties. With so much consideration of the others for the success of the SPD was not to be expected.”

He should therefore stick to his tacticssays campaign analyst Wallis. “Have a quiet election campaign, no big show, no ego numbers. Avoid all risks.” As long as the favorites and their teams fight each other, Scholz could continue to stand for what the Germans always choose when in doubt: “Objectivity, security, experience.”

But the attacks, even below the belt, will increase, thinks political and strategy advisor Martin Fuchs. “Scholz has now become an extremely dangerous opponent for the Greens and the CDU.” Scholz used his calm and unexcited manner, which has not rattled him in the past when the wind got sharper. “In contrast to what was seen with Laschet and the Greens,” said Fuchs. But the SPD shouldn’t make the mistake of dealing too much with the attacks. Instead, the party must continue to concentrate on its own issues and communicate them consistently. “The trend is now a friend of the comrades, and this will further spur the campaign and mobilization, since voters are always more inclined to win and do not want to choose losers,” believes Fuchs. But a lot could still happen in the five weeks leading up to the election.

In any case, Scholz’s race to catch up does not go unnoticed. CSU boss Markus Söder made the Greens as the main opponent a few weeks ago, against the coalition partner. The SPD as a new major competitor in the fight for the chancellery – just a look into the crystal ball would have made this scenario seem possible a year ago.

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