New survey shock for the CDU: The SPD has caught up with the Union in the trend barometer of the opinion research institute Insa. Both are now at 22 percent.
Five weeks before the federal election, the SPD caught up with the Union in a poll. In the weekly Sunday trend of the polling institute Insa for “Bild am Sonntag”, the union with Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet (CDU) drops by three percentage points to 22 percent. The Social Democrats with their candidate Olaf Scholz climb by two points to also 22 percent.
This means that for the first time since April 2017, the Union and the SPD are on par with the electorate. At that time, the Social Democrats under the then Chancellor candidate Martin Schulz experienced a high poll that began to melt five months before the Bundestag election at that time.
The Greens lose one point in the Insa survey and come to 17 percent. The FDP rises by one point to 13 percent, the AfD by one point to 12 percent. The left remains stable at 7 percent. Election surveys, however, are generally fraught with uncertainty and only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey. Unlike other institutes, Allensbach published 27.5 percent for the Union and 19.5 percent for the SPD on Thursday.
In a direct comparison, Scholz is clearly ahead
According to Insa, Scholz would vote directly for chancellor if this were possible. That is five percentage points more than a week ago. Union candidate Laschet falls by three points to 12 percent and is still behind Green candidate Annalena Baerbock, who comes unchanged to 13 percent. The party values were determined from Monday to Friday, the numbers for the candidates on Friday. On Saturday, the CDU and CSU rang in the hot election campaign phase with a declaration of war on the SPD and the Greens and the warning of a shift to the left.
If the numbers were the same in the federal election, Scholz would have more options for a possible coalition. The SPD candidate for chancellor prefers a red-yellow-green alliance. “There is a long social-liberal tradition in Germany,” Scholz said of possible coalitions. But a left-wing alliance made up of the SPD, the Greens and the Left could also come into question.
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