These days the bad news for the CDU and Armin Laschet is increasing. As a new forecast shows, the candidate for chancellor in North Rhine-Westphalia could now miss entry into the Bundestag.
It is becoming more and more apparent: Armin Laschet will not be a member of the next Bundestag. At least that is what a current forecast by the Berlin policy consultants Johanssen and Kretschmer shows. This states that the CDU candidate for chancellor could not move into parliament via the CDU’s North Rhine-Westphalian state list, on whose first place he is.
Laschet’s problem with the election in NRW
According to Johanssen and Kretschmer, 37 of the 64 constituencies will go to the Christian Democrats in the 2021 federal election. Not a shocking result, just a minimal loss to the last election. Four years ago, the CDU acquired 38 constituencies. The problem lies elsewhere: with the second votes. Here the CDU is far behind the results of 2017.
At the same time, the new electoral law takes effect for the first time, which leads to a change in the offsetting of the overhang mandates. Only if the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia continues to catch up with the Union in the first votes or if a trend reversal begins in the second votes, the CDU chairman can hope for a move into the state list.
A few weeks ago, Laschet surprisingly renounced the direct candidacy in his home constituency Aachen 1 in favor of Rudolf Henke. According to the current forecasts by Election.de, the CDU health politician could now also be subject to the Bundestag vice-parliamentary group of the Greens, Oliver Krischer.
What happens if Laschet does not become Chancellor?
Armin Laschet does not need a mandate to be elected Chancellor – but it is necessary for the position of parliamentary group chairman. If the CDU chairman fails to enter the Bundestag and the CDU goes into the opposition at the same time, then the position of parliamentary group chairman and thus opposition leader would be blocked. In any case, Laschet would be the first candidate for Chancellor in the Federal Republic who cannot vote for himself.
All that remains for Laschet in the event of a defeat is to withdraw to North Rhine-Westphalia. When asked by the FAZ whether he could imagine being Prime Minister in North Rhine-Westphalia again in the event of a bad election result, he replied: “A clear no. It is clear to me: my place will be in Berlin after the federal elections.” Since Laschet currently still holds this post, however, a CDU state party conference on October 23 will decide on Laschet’s successor in North Rhine-Westphalia. It is the second date that has been set for this decision. The first party conference planned for June was officially canceled due to Corona. In the background, however, it was also said that an open exchange of blows among the possible successors of Laschet was not desired after the exhausting fight with Markus Söder. Currently, however, the CDU’s candidate for chancellor is again on shaky feet due to poor poll results within the CDU.
Last chance for Armin Laschet
Despite a defeat in the federal election campaign and missing a seat in the Bundestag, Laschet could still become a member of parliament. A directly elected MP can waive his mandate in favor of the CDU chairman. Then Laschet would move up. For the citizens, who would thus lose their direct candidate, it would at least take some getting used to – and certainly also a mortgage for an opposition leader Laschet.
See in this video: The polls for Laschet and his party were recently weak. In a recent poll, pollsters see the CDU and SPD as being tied at 22 percent. The chancellor candidate wants to change that – from door to door.
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