The SPD is continuing to catch up in the polls – and is overtaking the Union for the first time in 15 years in the RTL / n-tv “trend barometer”. The approval for Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz is also growing.
In the current “trend barometer” from RTL / n-tv, the SPD is overtaking the Union and is thus for the first time in 15 years ahead of the CDU / CSU in the opinion poll. Accordingly, the Social Democrats are with 23 percent (one percent more than in the previous week) ahead of the Union with 22 percent (one percent less). The last time the SPD was in October 2006 with 32 percent was ahead of the Union with 30 percent. The 22 percent now determined for the Union is the worst value that Forsa has ever measured for the Union since the opinion research institute was founded in 1984.
The Greens to Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock sag in the RTL / n-tv “trend barometer” to 18 percent (one percent less), the values of the FDP (12 percent), AfD (10 percent) and left (6 percent) remain unchanged to the previous week.
Among the other parties, there are currently none that come close to the 3 percent mark. At 26 percent, the proportion of non-voters and undecided is still higher than the proportion of non-voters in the 2017 federal election (23.8 percent).
For the current “trend barometer” from RTL / n-tv on behalf of Mediengruppe RTL, 2504 people were surveyed between August 17 and 23, 2021. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.
No majority for black-green, but for the “traffic light” coalition
On the basis of the current polls, neither an alliance of the Union and the Greens (342 mandates) nor a coalition of the Union and the SPD (385) would have a majority capable of governing.
A coalition of the Union, the Greens and the FDP (“Jamaica” coalition, 444 mandates) and a coalition of the Union, SPD and FDP (“Germany” coalition, 487 mandates) could rule. A majority capable of governing would also have a so-called “traffic light” coalition made up of the Greens, SPD and FDP (449 seats) and a red-red-green alliance made up of the SPD, the Greens and the Left (398 seats).
Scholz claims top position among the candidates
In the Chancellor preference, SPD candidate Scholz wins another percentage point in the RTL / n-tv “trend barometer” compared to the previous week and is now 30 percent ahead of Union candidate Laschet (11 percent), who lost another point. The values of the Green candidate Baerbock (15 percent) remain unchanged. 44 percent of those surveyed would not choose any of the three applicants.
If CSU party leader Markus Söder had run as the Union’s candidate for chancellor, according to the survey, 38 percent would choose him – in this comparison significantly more than for Scholz (21 percent) and Baerbock (14 percent).
The upward trend for the SPD continues
Five weeks before the general election, the SPD is continuing its race to catch up in the polls. Most recently, the Social Democrats were drawn level with the Union in the weekly Sunday trend of the polling institute Insa. Accordingly, the Union slumped by three percentage points to 22 percent, the SPD climbed by two points to also 22 percent. For the first time since April 2017, the Union and the SPD were on par again. The Greens around Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock lost one point in the Insa survey and came to 17 percent.
Prior to that, Scholz had made strong gains in the competition between the candidates for chancellor on Thursday. In a direct election, instead of 35 percent, as was the case at the beginning of August, 41 percent would now vote for the SPD politician. Only 16 percent (-4) would decide for Armin Laschet and only twelve percent (-4) for Annalena Baerbock. Three out of ten voters (31 percent, +2) could or still did not want to commit to any of the three.
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