Mario Draghi: This maneuver can plunge Italy into political chaos

Mario Draghi managed a smile, shook a few hands and then disappeared from the Senate room in Rome. In fact, in the small chamber of parliament he had made a last, desperate attempt to save his government in this absurd summer crisis. But then the 74-year-old suffered such a severe defeat that his Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio spoke of a “black chapter for Italy”. This Wednesday could have cataclysmic consequences not only for the country but also for Europe. The experienced economist and nationally and internationally highly respected prime minister practically maneuvered himself out of office. His unconditional will to bring all MPs in the multi-party government into line became his undoing. Now the post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia around Giorgia Meloni are getting ready to seize power in possible new elections. Draghi was the only significant party not to have this in the government.

Mario Draghi’s government majority is crumbling

The bizarre thing is: Draghi had actually won both decisive votes of confidence in the Senate. In the previous week, however, the absence of the five-star senators was enough for him to hand in his resignation. And the star populists were joined by the centre-right parties Forza Italia and Lega in the second vote. The governing majority of the former head of the European Central Bank, who was appointed in Corona February 2021, has crumbled. Of the 321 members of the Senate, only 95 voted for Draghi, less than a third. 38 were against, the rest – mainly senators from the stars, the Lega and Forza Italia – did not vote. What a sign! “On this day of madness, Parliament decides to take a stand against Italy,” said Social Democrat leader Enrico Letta.

Draghi’s emotional speech dies away

In a speech that was unusually energetic and emotional for a banker in the morning, Draghi appealed to MPs to overcome the differences for the good of the country. He made it clear that, as an unelected outsider, he can only remain at the top of the government if all relevant political forces support him – otherwise he has no legitimacy. But he made no concessions to the doubters. Lega and Forza Italia had linked their yes in the vote of confidence to the Five Stars being kicked out of the government. And the stars had several demands on Draghi, including the strange-looking condition that no waste incineration plant be built in Rome.

Is Italy now threatened with political chaos?

Italy is now threatening to sink into political chaos, just in a summer in which the country is already plagued: by a historic drought and great heat, blazing forest fires, increasing numbers of infections and deaths in the Corona crisis and the consequences of the war in Ukraine with extreme energy and raw material prices. Surprisingly, after the gossip in the Senate, Draghi did not hand in his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella on Wednesday evening – Mattarella had rejected an initial request the previous week. According to media reports, the step could follow on Thursday if Draghi also has to make representations to the House of Representatives, the larger of the two chambers of Parliament.

Possible scenario: new elections in autumn

What follows is completely open: the president can order another expert from outside to look for a majority in parliament. It is more likely, however, that Mattarella will dissolve the chambers and order new elections in the fall. In any case, the Mediterranean country, which had flourished under Draghi, was doing well economically, became a role model thanks to its vaccination campaign from the Corona problem child and seemed to shed its decades-long image of chaos, a political standstill.

“Perfect storm” for Italy

A “ballet of the irresponsible against Draghi” provoked a situation that now threatens a “perfect storm,” wrote EU Commissioner and former Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni on Twitter. “Now is the time to stand by Italy. We face difficult months but we are a great country.” The EU Economic Commissioner knows exactly what he is talking about. Italy has to implement a number of reforms in order to get dozens of outstanding billions from the EU recovery fund. Is that even possible in the midst of a looming election campaign that, given recent events, is likely to be heated up? Even the energetic Draghi had not yet received some reforms.

Italy’s international influence could wane

Internationally, Italy could lose influence that Draghi had promoted thanks to its reputation. He had raised his country to an equal footing with Germany and France in many areas, which was manifested not least in the joint visit to Kyiv with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Emmanuel Macron. It remains to be seen how his successor ticks. In polls, the centre-right bloc is currently prophesying a victory in possible elections – the strongest force is then likely to be the extreme right-wing and post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia. Party leader Meloni appeared ready to take over government on Wednesday evening, just minutes after the crushing vote of confidence in Draghi. “I have my ideas about how this country should be governed,” she said at an event in Rome.