Russia clears the way for grain exports from Ukraine. No further questions, except: Why now – and can you rely on it?
Annalena Baerbock wrote the sentence a few weeks ago, but it hasn’t lost its validity so far: “Russia isn’t just waging its brutal war with tanks, rockets and bombs,” during a meeting of foreign ministers at the United Nations in New Zealand York. “Russia is waging this war with another terrible and quieter weapon: hunger and deprivation.”
It was drastic words from the German foreign minister who accused Russia of a “grain war” set in motion by the blockade of Ukrainian ports, the destruction of grain silos, roads, railways and farmers’ fields, with a “global food crisis” as a result.
Now, after weeks of negotiations that seemed hopeless for a long time, Russia is apparently giving up that weapon: Ukraine and Russia signed an agreement on grain exports this Friday. The agreement had been negotiated over several weeks with the mediation of Turkey and the United Nations ().
No further questions, except: Does the Kremlin really want to end the “grain war” – and if so, why now?
“I don’t think Russia is ready to implement exports one-to-one”
Phone call to Gerhard Mangott. The political scientist at the University of Innsbruck sees the emerging agreement as an encouraging sign, albeit with resilient skepticism. But one by one.
On Thursday, the European Union put together a package of sanctions for the seventh time. This is what the EU is doing, at least in the dispute over blocked wheat deliveries, however: The export of grain and fertilizers from Russia is being made easier, and the maintenance of civil passenger aircraft is also being made possible again.
“The EU has made concessions to Russia with its seventh package of sanctions,” said political scientist Mangott on Friday morning star, who sees the “concessions” as a key factor behind the Kremlin’s alleged rethinking. “The EU has made advance payments, which apparently prompts Russia to give in as well.” Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has again emphasized that such concessions are necessary in order to think about defusing the situation.
However, the Russian reputation was certainly a factor, according to Mangott. “It’s not easy for the Kremlin to argue that the undersupply in Africa in particular has nothing to do with the Russian blockade.” The Russian narrative that the food crisis is a consequence of Western sanctions or mined ports in Ukraine is catching on in some African countries. But not everywhere. “In this respect, Russia might also want to prevent a further loss of reputation,” said the expert.
Between 20 and 25 million tons of grain are currently blocked in Ukraine. The Russian war of aggression and its consequences drove up prices. In this respect, the agreement could provide some relaxation, although many questions are still open. The implementation of the agreement – and thus the export of food from Ukraine – could take weeks. In addition, Moscow could torpedo the agreements with pretended reasons or even allow them to fail completely.
Political scientist Mangott also warns: It remains to be seen whether the grain exports will run smoothly or whether there will be any delays by Russia. “I don’t think Russia is ready to convert exports one-to-one,” he says. Russia will probably find objections “why this and that won’t work” in order to keep the grain shortage as a means of pressure. According to the expert, one thing should not be forgotten: “Even if last year’s harvest can be shipped, Russia is still sticking to its behavior of stealing grain from the occupied territories in Ukraine and deliberately burning cultivated areas.” The result: “In the coming year there should still be quantity problems, even if free transport were guaranteed.”
Not least against this background, the step cannot be understood as de-escalation. “That would go too far,” said Mangott. “The agreement is a positive step in a war that knows no positive steps.” It was not expected that there could be any kind of breakthrough at all. “In this respect, this is an encouraging sign – even if it says nothing about the duration of the war or the positions of the warring parties. That would be an overly optimistic interpretation of what happened.”
Source: Stern
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