For the time being, the US wants to maintain the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan by August 31. The time window for evacuations secured by the military is closing. What does that mean for the local situation?
Joe Biden remains: The US President wants to hold on to the withdrawal of the troops by next Tuesday – although many thousands of Afghans are still hoping to leave. Biden also did not change requests from European allies to allow evacuations at Kabul Airport for a longer period of time ().
This closes the time window for evacuations secured by the military for Western citizens, Afghan local staff and other vulnerable people who are dependent on the presence of the currently more than 5,000 US troops. And the curtain for “a kind of power theater” the Taliban could fall, says security expert Florence Gaub zum stern.
Security Expert: “Our values will be demonstrated”
“The withdrawal is good news for terrorism worldwide”says Gaub, “but not for us”. The political scientist is among other things and deals with the Arab region and European security policy. With a view to the evacuation missions, she warns: “Without the United States, it is extremely difficult to properly protect the troops themselves, and we also do not have the intelligence material to have a precise picture of the situation.” To be able to do this, “we would not only need larger defense budgets, but above all geopolitical will.”
According to the head of the Federal Armed Forces Association, the US will stick to the withdrawal plans “increase the pressure again”. The Bundeswehr must now see that they can bring out as many local German helpers with their relatives as possible via the airport and that the soldiers come back safely. But: “We know: we can’t help everyone right now”said André Wüstner on Wednesday on ZDF”Morning magazine”. “All promises will not be able to be kept.”
After the troop withdrawal, security expert Gaub expects us “up to spring primarily a kind of power theater of the Taliban presented” get, in which the militant Islamists themselves as “Will represent the conquerors of two world powers that represent true Afghan society.” Gaub believes that this will be uncomfortable for the USA and the EU, “because we, our values, democracy, will be demonstrated.” Be it that “first official act” the Taliban to get the country under their control – that includes military control on the one hand, and that of institutions on the other.
The Taliban should also be concerned with securing their supremacy. Bundeswehr association chief Wüstner also pointed out that other terror groups were also increasingly active in the capital that was taken over by the Islamists. You would surely try “to draw attention to yourself again”. US President Biden also warned of a growing threat of terrorism at the airport in Kabul by a local branch of the terrorist militia Islamic State (IS). The IS offshoot is a declared enemy of the Taliban, said Biden – with an attack on the airport, the terrorists could shake the credibility of the Taliban as the new rulers and also hit foreign troops who are hated by the group.
“In the medium term it is quite conceivable that the Islamic State could become a problem”, says security expert Gaub. Even the Taliban could not control all of Afghanistan. “Hence the upcoming power theater”, said Gaub: A vacuum could arise in which IS could spread, especially IS “ideologically not on the same wavelength as the Taliban.” In the conflict between IS and the Taliban “it’s not about values, but about supremacy.” Gaub summarizes: “The withdrawal is good news for terrorism worldwide, but not for us.”
Reports: Bundeswehr before the end of their evacuation flights
In view of the imminent withdrawal of US troops, media reports suggest that the Bundeswehr could end its evacuation flights this week. The Ministry of Defense did not want to confirm reports that the airlift is expected to end on Friday. He could media reports about a possible point in time “neither confirm nor deny”said a ministry spokesman on Wednesday. Several media had previously reported that the flights would end on Friday or Saturday.
According to the Defense Ministry, the Bundeswehr evacuated a total of 4,654 people from Afghanistan by Wednesday morning. On Tuesday, 983 people were flown out in five flights. The evacuation flights continued on Wednesday.
Even the chairman of the CDU / CSU parliamentary group in the Foreign Affairs Committee, Roderich Kiesewetter (CDU), could not confirm the end of the flights on Friday. It is clear, however, that if the USA withdraws on August 31, their partners would have to leave Afghanistan two to three days in advance, he said on Wednesday on ZDF”Morning magazine”. That is why it is very important that local Afghan workers can also leave afterwards. It is therefore a matter of negotiating with the radical Islamic Taliban.
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