The situation around Taiwan is coming to a head. Several details of the development are fatally reminiscent of the weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those are the biggest parallels.
Is the world poised for another war of geopolitical significance? Opinions differ on this. As early as spring, the director of the Institute for Security Policy at the University of Kiel, Joachim Krause, wrote in the “Neue Zürcher Zeitung” that Russia and China would trigger regional crises in the fight against the West in Ukraine and Taiwan respectively. Unlike Russia, China has not gone to extremes so far, but recent events are fueling fear and causing great nervousness internationally. “The probability of war or a serious incident is low,” tweeted Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the think tank German Marshall Fund. But even the Russian invasion of Ukraine was considered by many to be unlikely.
However, the parallels in the development of both conflicts are striking:
Great power makes claims on neighboring country
- the Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until its collapse, has been independent since December 1991 and is internationally recognized as an independent state. Russian President Vladimir Putin derives his territorial claims from belonging to the USSR and from earlier historical connections.
- Taiwan is according to the leadership in Beijing a (breakaway) province of China. The island nation, by most states because of the pressure from Beijing Not officially recognized, has basically existed since the end of the civil war in 1949, when the government, elites and armed forces of the former Republic of China withdrew to Taiwan while the People’s Republic of China was proclaimed in Beijing. China’s current head of state and party leader Xi Jinping sees the “unification” with Taiwan as a “historic mission”.
Demonstrative negation of independence
- Putin said just a few days before the start of the war that Ukraine never had “real statehood”, although this was also recognized by Russia after the end of the Soviet Union.
- The leadership in Beijing announced the visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, in Taiwan sharply condemned as “interference in China’s internal affairs” and reacted accordingly: sanctions against Pelosi, termination of cooperation on climate and defense issues.
Lack of consistency from the West
- Two wars in Chechnya (from 1994 and from 1999), the massacre of civilians in Grozny (2000), the Georgian war over Abkhazia and South Ossetia (2008), the annexation of Crimea (2014), the armed conflict in Donbass – there were enough signs that Putin ready to use violence and war to achieve its political goals. The West has always criticized that red lines had been crossed, but this had few consequences – even as the territorial integrity of the Ukraine was injured. Experts are certain that Putin interprets this attitude as weakness – and ultimately as encouragement for an invasion of Ukraine, since he need not fear any tangible consequences.
- Xi Jinping also considers Western democracies to be weak – if only because of the limited terms of office of the heads of state and government, which, as is well known, plays no role for the Chinese ruler. Like Putin, Xi has shown he does not shy away from using violence as a political tool: brutal crackdowns on the freedom movement in Hong Kong, genocide against the Uyghur Muslim minority – with a well-documented detention center system. The West denounced the crossing of red lines, there were hardly any consequences. What speaks for that in case of an invasion Taiwan would be different?
Major maneuvers right in front of the borders of the neighboring country
- In the weeks leading up to the invasion of Ukraine On February 24, Russian troops carried out gigantic heavy-weapons maneuvers involving up to 100,000 troops previously massed on Ukraine’s borders. Belarusian units were also involved in combat exercises near the border.
- The Chinese army is currently completing a maneuver with all branches of arms in violation of the twelve nautical mile zone around Taiwan. “To show that the People’s Liberation Army is capable of controlling all approaches to Taiwan,” a scientist with the China Naval Research Institute told Chinese television.
Assurance that only maneuvers would be carried out
- Before the invasion on February 24, the Russian leadership in the Kremlin had always insisted that maneuvers would only be carried out on the border to the Ukraine carried out. No one intends to start a war.
- The Chinese naval scientist described the maneuvers on TV as “an effective deterrent to forces seeking independence Taiwans strive for.” There is no mention of the intention to carry out the desired “unification”.
The war in Ukraine has now been going on for more than five months. Much of the world is hoping that the parallels between the two crises have ended and that no further war will break out – except for Aleksey Zhuravlyov, the head of the nationalist Rodina party, which supports Putin. , it would have been “good” for Russia if China shot down the plane carrying Nancy Pelosi. This would have opened a second front. US President Joe Biden has also pledged military support to Taiwan. It would be a direct confrontation of the great powers.
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Source: Stern
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