According to the latest Forsa survey on the TV triumph of the chancellor candidates, Olaf Scholz has clearly won. He did not stand out much compared to his opponents. The straightforward, quiet course seems to be his recipe for success, say experts.
When two people quarrel, it is well known that the third is happy. This was also evident in yesterday’s RTL TV triumph of the three chancellor candidates Armin Laschet (CDU), Annlena Baerbock (Greens) and Olaf Scholz (SPD). While Baerbock shone through her tireless activism in matters of climate protection, Laschet tried to criticize the party. And Olaf Scholz? “He stayed true to his line,” sums up the political scientist Thomas Jäger from the University of Cologne. In view of the election campaign so far, this means: just don’t attract attention. He was not better than the other candidates – and is still ahead of the competition in the race, as a Forsa lightning survey among the spectators showed.
36 percent of the around 2500 respondents in the representative survey said that Scholz had won the triumph. 30 percent saw Baerbock up front, only 25 percent saw Laschet. When asked who was the most likable, Scholz was at the top with 38 percent, followed by Baerbock (37 percent) and Laschet (25 percent). Scholz did not do much more on Sunday evening than in the previous weeks of the election campaign.
Flying high thanks to empty content and supposed competence
“In the population survey after the Triell, however, it must be taken into account that a so-called confirmation bias can occur here,” says Simon Franzmann, political scientist at the University of Göttingen stern opposite to concerns. The results are very likely to confirm existing opinions among the respondents. “Because they already have a positive attitude towards a person, they perceive their work accordingly more positively. This effect is certainly also behind the high values for Mr. Scholz,” suspects Franzmann.
According to political scientist Jäger, his ability to deliver a “solo race” in the TV trio and to come across even more empty than his opponents in terms of content also makes Scholz’s sympathy ratings soaring, according to political scientist Jäger – a phenomenon that is still known from earlier election campaigns appears. “Merkel’s election campaigns were also comparatively devoid of content and Scholz is now pretending that he can ‘keep track of things’,” says Jäger. Franzmann sees it similarly. “In the past few years, German Bundestag election campaigns were primarily competence election campaigns.” The positive poll numbers for the SPD candidate seem to be an indication of this. As finance minister he is credited with great credibility in this regard.
The fact that Scholz may be partly responsible for major financial scandals surrounding Wirecard or the handling of cum-ex transactions at Warburg Bank is apparently less of a problem for the population. “While Baerbock is right to be upset about missing footnotes, the really big scandals are ignored at Scholz,” says Jäger. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the financial scandals are difficult to understand and highly complex for many, he suspects. That reduces the potential for outrage.
“Anyone who stinks is perceived as a yapper”
Scholz gained sympathy points in the Triell not only because of his quiet Scholz course and the competence attributed to him. He refrained from criticizing his challengers personally for the entire evening, said Franzmann. Scholz calmly evades attacks by Armin Laschet every time, but a real fight only arises if the opponent also gets involved, said political advisor Eric Wallis to the stern. “Scholz’s thoughtful and calm way of speaking lets attacks roll off. Anyone who then continues to stink will be perceived as a barker who is not interested in the matter at hand.”
The SPD chancellor candidate, on the other hand, excelled with calm and friendliness. “Mr. Laschet’s positive words about Mr. Scholz came more hesitantly and not as friendly as would have been expected for someone with the image of ‘philanthropist'”, explains Franzmann. In addition, in contrast to Scholz, he did not adhere to the allotted time for the final statement. “In the perception of many viewers of such a TV format, such things are much more important than specific details of individual factual issues. This is especially true for voters who are undecided whether to vote for the SPD or the Union in the federal elections,” summarizes Franzmann .
“Scholz is not a rousing politician. What is otherwise a weakness becomes a strength here,” says Wallis. While Annalena Baerbock appears more aggressive and Armin Laschet attracts attention with his biting remarks, Olaf Scholz is perceived as balancing and considered. “Scholz is betting that the other two will scramble for the place in his coalition.” So while Baerbock and Laschet may not be quiet, the third party can currently be quietly happy about the high approval ratings.
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