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The military expert Carlo Masala classifies the explosions in Crimea, about the cause of which accounts continue to differ, as an event in the Ukraine war that is noteworthy on several levels.
After the explosions at the Saky airbase, military expert Carlo Masala sees the Russians vacationing in Crimea as directly confronted with the war for the first time. “The war has come to them,” said Masala im star “Ukraine – the situation”, “they will take this experience to Russia.” That is a psychological effect that should not be underestimated. “That is the main effect.” Because so far the Russian middle class has hardly been affected by the fighting because the soldiers mostly belong to ethnic minorities or are mercenaries.
“The Russian accounts don’t make sense.”
The politics professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich assumes that the destruction at the air force base, 200 kilometers from the front, was actually caused by the Ukrainians. “The Russian claims that it was human error make no sense.”
However, it is unclear how exactly the Ukrainians carried out the attack – whether with special forces, rockets or a combination of both. But the country still has the know-how for the construction of short-range ballistic missiles from the Soviet era. Masala believes it is unlikely that the US has quietly changed policy and is supplying Ukraine with longer-range missiles. “Then the Russians would have made it a political issue long ago,” the expert analyses.
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dr Carlo Masala is Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich.
Russians would have to protect supplies much more
Even if the psychological effect predominates, the attack would also have military consequences. If Ukraine is now in a position to attack Russian targets up to 200 kilometers behind the front lines, then the problem for the Russians is that they have to protect supplies and infrastructure much more. “It’s a lot of work,” says Masala. In view of the degree of exhaustion and material loss of the Russians, this is not an easy task. However, it is too early to say: “This is the turning point for the course of the war.” But events would force the Russians to regroup. “I’m not sure if they can do it,” says the military expert.
Source: Stern
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