Putin’s winter – why Zelenskyy only have three months to save Ukraine

In every war Moscow had an ally: General Frost. As Napoleon’s Grande Armée retreated, the frozen lined the retreat roads. Hitler’s attack on the Soviet Union initially got stuck in the mud and finally died out at minus 40 degrees outside Moscow. Kyiv now faces the same fate. On the battlefield and because the gas war that Gazprom is waging against Europe only unfolds its full force in the cold.

On the field, the cold hinders offensives, it favors the defenders, who hold out in their developed positions and are comparatively warm and safe there. While the attacker has to go out into the cold and has great difficulty even making improvised shelters in the frozen ground. At first glance, one might think: Well, Russia is the aggressor – so the winter is bad for Putin. But actually it is exactly the other way around. So far, Moscow is advancing at key points, very slowly but unstoppably. Putin’s plan will be to continue this form of war in the fall and possibly launch another offensive alongside the Donbass. Then to set up protective positions in the conquered areas and to go over to the defense. And use the winter to reinforce and re-equip the depleted troops. If Moscow succeeds, it would mean that Kyiv will not achieve any significant success until the spring.

climax of the gas war

In addition to the difficult military situation, the gas war will reach its peak in winter. European governments are currently assuring their citizens that there will be enough gas and energy. The only open question is who will then be able to afford energy. Already, social networks and media are full of stories of desperate families who can no longer afford the rising prices. In addition, there are only reports from companies that have to reduce or give up operations in view of their electricity and gas bills. In short: In public, the topic “Our suffering from the energy crisis and rising prices” has clearly overtaken the topic “War in Ukraine”. If the economic crisis worsens, the idea of ​​calling for a quick end to the war will find support among the population.

Emergency victims Ukraine

There is also another factor that the general public has not yet been aware of. Putin calculates that his three “offensives” in the economic war will work together and that their climax will come at the same time. And that would be: exploding food prices, scarcity and exploding prices in the energy sector and the burden of an “emergency victim Ukraine”. Ukraine will not be able to get through the winter financially. The Russian conquests are already blocking most of the exportable Ukrainian economic output. The rest of the country’s economy is also suffering from the war. The collapse in revenue is offset by exploding expenses. For war, but also for energy. In the coming winter, the allies will have to organize and ultimately pay for Ukraine’s gas needs. A country with more than 40 million inhabitants must then essentially be financed by the countries of the EU. The European governments will have to deal with the growing dissatisfaction of the population and in this situation they must also demand substantial solidarity payments for Ukraine.

time window is shrinking

Kyiv has only about three months left for an offensive to thwart Putin’s plan. Not for the starting gun, but for the successful completion of the operation. Given the shape of this war, with its slow movements on the ground, the time frame to launch such a ground offensive is shrinking. If Kyiv cannot concentrate the number of troops it needs this year, Russia will continue to settle in the conquered areas and push for their formal annexation or detachment from Ukrainian state territory. The change in status is a prerequisite for introducing a form of conscription there and thus solving the Russian army’s personnel problem.