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Military expert Carlo Masala analyzes why Turkey and the United Nations are also unable to make peace quickly.
The military expert does not expect that Turkish President Erdogan and UN Secretary General Guterres will be able to launch more comprehensive negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in the short term. The potential is “relatively limited”. A few weeks ago, the two statesmen mediated the agreement on grain transport in the Black Sea and yesterday met with President Zelenskyy in western Ukraine.
Erdogan still has access to Putin
“Erdogan is one of the few who still have good contact with Putin,” says the Munich politics professor. From the point of view of NATO and the European Union, the role of the Turkish president is to be welcomed – despite all the problems with him and his calculations. But you have to see: “The grain agreement is based on the fact that both Ukraine and Russia have an interest in grain being able to be exported.” Ukraine is primarily concerned with revenue, Russia with its image in Africa and other southern countries. “One should not be misled by the fact that the Grains Agreement appears resilient at the moment to conclude that this is some kind of blueprint for other agreements.” Actually, an agreement on the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant is pending. “But we can see that the situation is getting worse.” The Russians would toy with the nuclear threat and commit to nothing. Moscow is a long way from getting involved in negotiations.
Zelenskyj sends message to his country
According to Masala’s analysis, the attitude of the Ukrainian President also speaks against rapid progress. Selenskyj had recently made it clear that the Russians would have to evacuate the occupied territories before negotiations. “If the prerequisite for negotiations is that Russian troops leave Ukrainian territory, then there will be no negotiations.” Zelenskyy’s statement may be aimed at domestic politics, but cannot seriously be a condition. It must be the goal of talks that Russia withdraw. The bottom line is that there is currently little movement on the fronts. “This is a war of position and attrition,” says Masala.
Source: Stern
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