There are still 23 days until the general election. Armin Laschet, the Union’s candidate for chancellor, is attacking – with a “future team” made up of eight experts. Is that the breakout from the survey low?
For a long time Armin Laschet could be happy without a plan. Why not? The Union, whose candidate for chancellor he is, outperformed the political competition in the polls. The green altitude became a descent, numerous mistakes by the top candidate had ensured, and the SPD was once again considered written off, apparently set in concrete in the survey cellar.
For the CDU / CSU, the election campaign practically took care of itself. As a result, there was no hurry with content, with potential conflict material in the political dispute. And so the sister parties did not present their election program until June, shortly before the general election, as the last of the major parties.
But now everything is different. And for Laschet things obviously can’t go fast enough with content.
With momentum into the future – 23 days before the election
“Bringing creative ideas to the point now, that’s what we set out to do” – only 23 days left until the federal election. In a nutshell, it should be his “future team”, a committee of four experts each with different topics, from which the CDU party leader should hope for a new impetus for his fight for the chancellery.
He can use momentum. The strategy of the largely meaningless election campaign, the unexcited course of “measure and middle”, on which everyone could agree, evidently did not prove to be sustainable. In several surveys, the Union is behind the SPD, top candidate Olaf Scholz is way ahead in terms of chancellor preference, and he gets significantly more from the voters: inside.
The Social Democrats have succeeded in turning the trend, but also and above all because of Scholz. His has increasingly struck a hook in the memory of the voters: internally – and brought him the telling reproach of the Union on the part of the Union.
In the case of the Union, it should now be resolved, and the “future team” should also mobilize the electorate and usher in the turnaround. Because unlike Scholz, Laschet apparently couldn’t muster enough pulling power on his own. He was elected to the office of CDU chief as a team player who, after the lengthy search process, was supposed to ensure calm in his own ranks and bring together the currents of the party.
Laschet therefore also emphasized at the presentation that the “future team” should hold all party wings together and at the same time provide new ideas for the future. They are experts who do something other than “experiments of an ideological nature”. Merz, who is assigned to the conservative CDU wing, is supposed to take care of the economy and finance. The deputy CSU chairwoman Bär represents the area of digitization and innovation.
The late departure from Merkel
The goal: a clearer profile of which content and which minds the Union stands for. Laschet has missed that so far, one reads from statements made by leading Union politicians. “We need a change of strategy, we also need an election campaign that makes the differences clearer,” said Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU), for example.
But also CSU boss Markus Söder that the Union “must now point out what the differences are to the other constellations”. Meant: The government options without the participation of the CDU / CSU, which, according to surveys, are increasingly likely. Even when the polls were better: “It is very important that we document in the next few weeks that it is not just about driving to the Chancellery in a sleeper, at slow speed.” End of the announcement – but a clear announcement to Laschet.
Will the “future team” bring about the trend reversal, the break free?
It is the late correction of a strategic error, says political scientist Thomas Jäger from the University of Cologne stern. “The future team is clearly turning away from Merkel,” he says. On the one hand: Merz is there, known to be the chancellor’s intimate enemy. On the other hand: “All ministers from Merkel’s cabinet are absent.”
After his election as CDU chief, Laschet could have influenced the cabinet, but left this chance behind. “If he had sent Merz to the cabinet as economics minister, he would now be able to look for a dispute with Scholz on an equal footing.” If Merkel had brusquely rejected the request, Laschet could now hold her responsible for the bad polls. “That was his central strategic mistake,” said the political scientist.
For the Greens parliamentary group leader Anton Hofreiter is the last-minute team. And election researcher Peter Matuschek also doubts “that it can be a workhorse.” The head of the political and social research department at Forsa looked at the move with skepticism towards the AFP news agency. “I think the timing is really late,” said Matuschek. In addition, it is “a textbook sentence from any campaign manual that you need a team when you have a weak candidate.” Now it looks like “as if you had to force the strap on.”
Now you have to see how many people even know the experts. “Experience with non-political experts shows that this can bring a few points to attention,” said the election researcher. “It would probably make more sense if you had people who are already known and who have a certain pulling power.”
Because time is extremely short. The federal election is due in 23 days, and given the corona pandemic, a few crosses by postal vote are likely to be in the mail. “Wanting to publicly mediate all team members in a few days is a Herculean task for the campaigners,” says political scientist Jäger zum stern. “And singling out some would put the others behind.”
On September 26th at the latest, it will become clear whether Laschet and his “future team” will succeed in countering the downward trend – or whether the candidate for chancellor has got up.
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