Ukraine war drags on into next year, says military expert Masala

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The military expert Carlo Masala looks ahead after the multitude of semi-annual reviews. When asked why the war would be over in six months, he said: “My optimistic answer: nothing.” It will remain a war of position and attrition. “The war won’t be over in six months.” A main reason is: “Russia shows no signs of giving in.” In addition, both parties did not have the military capabilities to deal a serious blow to the other side that would end the war or significantly increase the willingness to negotiate peace.

dr Carlo Masala is Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich.

Ukraine War: Masala expects impact through fall and winter

But the politics professor already sees clear changes in warfare: “The Ukrainians are showing a new strategy.” They would have, to a limited extent “escalation dominance”. Whether it’s attacks on ammunition depots or attacks in Crimea – the Ukrainians have recently struck wherever they wanted. This is unpredictable for the Russians. “The Ukrainians want to unleash chaos among the Russian troops”so Masala – and that is also successful, but not enough to turn the tide overall.

In the next few weeks, the military expert expects strong effects from weather and seasonal changes. “From October onwards, the terrain will hardly be usable for either side.” When it rains and gets muddy, it is difficult to advance with motorized formations or tracked vehicles beyond paved roads. From October, therefore, the actions of both sides would decrease sharply. That won’t change until November or December at the earliest, when it freezes. Also because of this it is clear: “The war drags on into the next year.”