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The war in Ukraine has now lasted more than six months. Military expert Carlo Masala analyzes how much a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south can influence the course of the war.
The extent and course of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the regional capital of Cherson is still unclear, but according to military expert Carlo Masala, success would have a major impact on the further course of the war – for several reasons. “A recapture would be of high symbolic value”says Masala, “it would be a massive defeat for Russian forces that cannot be concealed at home.”
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dr Carlo Masala is Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich.
Retaking Cherson strategically important for Ukraine
But Cherson is also important militarily, because if they were successful, the Russians would be pushed back across the Dnieper. A river that big is not that easy to cross. “The defense of Kherson would become significantly easier for Ukrainian forces”, analyzes the politics professor. That would allow Ukraine to move troops and deploy them to other sectors of the front. Recapturing Cherson would also prevent the Russians from creating a land bridge between the occupied East and Crimea. “At the same time, the capture of Odessa would become almost completely impossible for the Russian troops”according to Masala.
The military expert is skeptical about the latest proposal by Chancellor Olaf Scholz to set up a new European air defense system. The Israeli system Arrow 3 is the favorite for this. “There is not a single system capable of launching a massive number of incoming missiles”, according to Masala. The opponent would not be Iran. Arrow 3 can handle five ballistic missiles, but not 50 that an enemy Russia could fire. “It is not absolute protection against a massive attack.”
Source: Stern
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