Armin Laschet is not having an easy time of it at the moment. His Union slips further with every new survey and even in his own federal state the candidate for chancellor only occupies second place. The coming weekend could be decisive.
It doesn’t look good for the Union. For weeks, the CDU and CSU have not been able to get out of the downward trend in the polls and are currently well behind the SPD – and, depending on the poll, only just ahead of the Greens. But things are even worse for their front man. “I felt headwinds again and again, even now,” said Armin Laschet almost two weeks ago at the first TV triall and underlined his steadfastness.
But the closer the Bundestag election gets, the deeper the approval ratings of the Union Chancellor candidate sink into the cellar. Compared to the competition, Laschet does significantly worse than SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz and mostly also ends up behind Green chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock. The headwind has turned into a storm.
Laschet falls to the lowest value in new polls
This is particularly clear in the current Allensbach survey, which sees the Social Democrats in front of the Union for the first time. According to the survey by the opinion research institute on behalf of the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”, the SPD has grown by three percentage points at 27 percent – while the Union is slipping by one point to 25 percent.
The survey published on Tuesday by the Forsa Institute for the broadcasters RTL and ntv shows the CDU / CSU at a low of 19 percent. “This is likely to be the lowest value that an institute has ever determined for the Union since 1949,” said Forsa. In the previous week, the union at the institute was still 21 percent.
Forsa, the scapegoat is clear: The Union suffers from the bad image of Armin Laschet. In a direct comparison of the Chancellor candidates, the CDU chief only got nine percent approval – while SPD candidate Olaf Scholz is 30 percent and Green candidate Annalena Baerbock is 15 percent. If, on the other hand, CSU boss Markus Söder were the Union’s candidate for chancellor, 38 percent would choose him, only 21 percent for Olaf Scholz and 15 percent for Annalena Baerbock, according to Forsa.
Even in NRW, the CDU is behind the SPD
Particularly bitter for Laschet: Two and a half weeks before the federal election, the CDU is in second place even in its own federal state. In a survey by the Civey Institute on behalf of Sat.1 NRW, the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia received 28 percent of the vote, while the CDU only received 24 percent, as the broadcaster announced on Wednesday. The Greens would vote 16 percent of those surveyed in North Rhine-Westphalia.
And in Bavaria, too, it looks bleak for the Union: According to a survey by the opinion research institute Infratest-dimap for Bavarian Broadcasting, the CSU in the Free State plummets to 28 percent. That would be well below their record low from the 2017 federal election, when the Christian Socialists in Bavaria got 38.8 percent of the vote. The SPD is obviously benefiting from the growing popularity of its top candidate: According to Infratest-dimap, Scholz is much better off with 57 percent approval than his Green competitor Annalena Baerbock (25 percent) and Union candidate Armin Laschet (17 percent).
Shortly before Triell: CSU increases pressure on Laschet
In principle, polls should be treated with caution. Nevertheless, the time for a turnaround is running out for CSU boss Markus Söder in view of the continuing low mood in the Union. “If there is still a chance to break the trend, it will be this weekend,” said Söder of the German press agency in Munich. At its party congress on Friday and Saturday, the CSU wants to mobilize its conservative regular voters with the express warning of a red-green-red coalition. “Even the implementation of individual election goals of the SPD, the Greens and the Left endangers the prosperity of our country,” says the draft for the lead proposal for the CSU party congress. “The consequences of a left slide would be devastating”.
Without addressing it directly, Söder is also likely to mean the second triad of the candidates for chancellor on Sunday on ARD and ZDF. His colleague and CSU regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt, however, found clearer words. “That will be watched by an audience of millions,” he said on Thursday on the radio station Bayern 2 about the triall. “And there is a chance to break the trend. Armin Laschet must use the opportunity to significantly improve his personality values.” At the same time, both emphasized their support for Laschet. The Union had chosen this candidate for chancellor, said Dobrindt. “It doesn’t depend on style notes now,” affirmed Söder. We all have to bargain. “
Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) also sees the outcome of the election as open despite the disastrous polls for the Union. “We are in the middle of the election campaign. I can feel that there is really fighting,” said Merkel on Thursday at a press conference on the sidelines of a board meeting of the bourgeois Christian Democratic European People’s Party (EPP) in Berlin. She added: “It will be billed on election day.”
Sources:,,, with DPA
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