Union faces crucial days in the federal election campaign

In retrospect, it seems a bit as if Markus Söder already suspected two weeks ago where the journey for the Union was going. When the CSU boss is asked in the podcast by TV presenter Sandra Maischberger how he assesses his power on a scale from one to ten, he answers briefly “three”. What sounds like a violent understatement in view of Söder’s political influence as the Bavarian head of government and head of a ruling party, is currently finding a practical example: Söder can hardly do anything about it to keep the Union and his own party out of the permanent poll receive.

That should change now. Or if you ask Söder about it: it has to change. “If there is still a chance to break the trend, it will be this weekend,” the Franconian told the German Press Agency on Thursday – and thus set the benchmark for the Union for the coming days between the CSU party congress and the second TV -Triell on Sunday evening on ARD and ZDF in lofty heights.

CSU party conference in Nuremberg

Söder actually has the start of the weekend of the decision in his own hands on Friday. At the large CSU party convention in his hometown of Nuremberg, everything revolves around his re-election as party leader. It’s not about if, but how. There is no question that Söder will remain at the top of the Christian Socialists. But what is his election result? Will it even be better than his first election in 2019 with 87.4 percent at the time? Or do many of the 900 or so delegates resent the prescribed reform course according to the motto younger, more feminine, greener?

Nobody in the CSU assumes the latter. Rather – it is said – the Söder critics in the CSU also know that a settlement would have a fatal effect on the already unfortunate election campaign, there is talk of the “last shot in the neck”. The direction of attack is clear – the CSU should gather behind Söder with maximum unity and thus send the signal to the outside world: We stand behind you and – so the hope – also behind the Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet, who is also controversial in Bavaria.

CSU strangers with Armin Laschet

The fact that the mood is actually quite different in the CSU is more than an open secret. Up and down the country, the party quarrels at all levels and strangers to the CDU chairman. This is fueled almost every day by historically poor polls from the Union between 19 and 25 percent in the federal government and not much better values ​​from the CSU of 28 percent in Bavaria.

Even die-hard CSU voters and members declare that they could not vote for the CSU because they did not want North Rhine-Westphalia as chancellor. The fact that a government then becomes more and more likely even without the CSU is accepted with a shrug of the shoulders. A paradoxical argument that is reminiscent of comparable statements from CDU circles about Söder, when he was fighting an open power struggle with Laschet over the K question in the spring.

CDU top is surprised at the taunts

Again and again, the doubts about Laschet can be heard publicly from prominent sources. For example, when CSU General Secretary Markus Blume explains in “Spiegel” that the Union with Söder as a candidate would “of course” be better off than it is now. In the CDU top they were amazed at the recent taunts from Munich – even if Laschet does not specifically address it on Thursday on the sidelines of an event and prefers to appeal to the unity of the Union sisters. In the CSU, on the other hand, statements like those of Blume are not considered a joke – everyone can see what the polls are like, it says there.

In the CDU presidium, too, some are wondering what strategy is behind Söder’s approach. Apparently the CSU leadership is already preparing the field to put the blame for an election defeat in Berlin and directly on Laschet, it is suspected behind closed doors. The CSU boss was probably more panic about a disaster in the Bavarian state elections in 2023 than before that the federal election would fail and the Union would be thrown out of the Chancellery.

Söder as “Candidate of Hearts”

But Söder shame himself with his tips against Laschet, some in the CDU leadership analyze – this can also be seen in the declining polls for the CSU in Bavaria. Part of the problem began many months ago – before the power struggle between Laschet and Söder over the candidacy for chancellor in April, in which the NRW Prime Minister finally prevailed against his counterpart from Bavaria, others say.

It is then also remembered how Söder presented himself in connection with the discussions about the right course in the corona pandemic as a representative of the “team prudence and caution” as an opponent of Laschet – and also how from the CSU the Berlin government policy on the subject Corona had been criticized. Söder has just perfectly mastered the balancing act of creating the impression that he is not involved in decisions, although he is very much involved, one also hears from important CDU people. It will also not be forgotten how Söder was called the actual “candidate of the heart” after Laschet had decided the K question for himself.

How do the CSU delegates receive Laschet?

The many internal debates in the election campaign final not only impressively demonstrate the great uncertainty and worries in the Union about losing the legacy of 16 years of government work by Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU). The tips also show that despite all the confessions there is still a great deal of mutual distrust. Therefore, not only in the CSU, many are asking themselves how Laschet will be received by the delegates on Saturday at his appearance in Nuremberg. Does he get little applause? Are there even whistles? Or does the miner’s son still manage to get the CSU enthusiastic about himself? It’s not just about the whole thing for him.