According to the latest poll, the CDU could tap significantly more votes – if CSU boss Markus Söder ran for chancellorship. The SPD and the Greens would not even make it to 20 percent.
With CSU boss Markus Söder as candidate for chancellor, the Union would, according to a Civey poll, be in a much better position than it is currently with Armin Laschet. In the survey published on Friday on behalf of “Focus Online”, which asks about the voting decision in this theoretical scenario, the Union comes to 37 percent and is clearly ahead. With its chancellor candidate Laschet, the Union was most recently in surveys with values between 19 and 25 percent – and thus in second place behind the SPD with its chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz, which came to 25 to 27 percent.
The pollsters from Civey asked: “Which party would you vote if Markus Söder were the top candidate of the CDU / CSU?” In this case, according to the answers, the SPD would only have 19 percent. The Greens would then be 17 percent, similar to in the most recent polls. According to the survey, the FDP would be in a significantly worse position in the Söder scenario with 6 percent than in reality. According to the Söder scenario, the left would be 5 percent, the AfD 9 percent.
Söder is committed to Laschet at the party congress
Söder was inferior to Laschet in the fight for the Union’s candidacy for chancellor. On Friday, the Bavarian Prime Minister Laschet had demonstratively strengthened his back at a CSU party conference in Nuremberg. “We are 100 percent behind our common candidate for chancellor and want to see Armin Laschet in the chancellery,” said Söder.
With the commitment to Laschet, Söder responded to irritations about CSU statements the day before. CSU General Secretary Markus Blume had told the “Spiegel” with a view to the polls: “Of course we would be better off with Markus Söder.” Blume later regretted that there had been irritations and said that his statements were related to Bavaria and the CSU – with a top candidate of their own there would always be a natural home advantage.
Just a snapshot
According to “Focus Online” for the survey in the period from 9.9. By 10.9.2021, the answers of 5004 participants from Germany are taken into account.
In principle, election surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not a prognosis for the outcome of the election. You are also always fraught with uncertainties. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected.
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