German main battle tanks for Ukraine? Chancellor Scholz still rejects going it alone on the issue of future arms aid. But the argument seems to be losing credibility. And the pressure is growing.
No, nothing to do. “There will be no going it alone,” said Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), which is still valid today.
At the time, there were calls for heavy weapons to be used to support Ukraine in the war against the Russian invaders. Two weeks later, after and , the federal government finally decided, in an international alliance, to stop the delivery of cheetah-Allow anti-aircraft tanks to Kyiv via the ring exchange procedure.
Now, on day 205 of the Russian campaign, the question again arises: What will Germany do?
The pressure is growing
A debate about future weapons aid has flared up again, and the pressure on the federal government is growing again – which has probably not been entirely without effect: Germany wants to give Ukraine two more multiple rocket launchers and 50 armored vehicles, according to Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD). However, Berlin does not allow Kiev’s actual wish, the delivery of German battle tanks and armored personnel carriers, to be fulfilled for the time being.
Because once again there should not be one thing: German solo efforts. That is the attitude “of the entire federal government, all of its members and the parties supporting them” during a press conference with the Prime Minister of Georgia in Berlin. Decisions will be made “together and in close coordination with our European and international partners”.
Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) also confirmed the line that “only together (…) in a coalition and internationally” should decisions be made on modern battle tanks. However, Ukraine is in a “crucial phase”, . In other words: time is of the essence.
And Scholz’s mantra of not wanting to go it alone in Germany is apparently increasingly losing its argumentative substructure. So far, no NATO country has delivered Western-style battle tanks to Ukraine, which the federal government always refers to. But if Germany wants to go ahead with deliveries, then it can – at least that’s how the latest signals from the USA can be understood.
Would that still be a solo effort?
The US embassy in Berlin spoke out after a report in the newspaper that the US government had asked the German government to support the Ukrainian military with the delivery of tanks and other heavy weapons. Germany’s military support is appreciated and will continue to be closely coordinated. All allies and partners should give the country “as much support as possible”. And: “The decision about the type of aid ultimately lies with each country itself.”
In any case, a clear “No” reads differently. So free travel for German main battle tank deliveries?
Last but not least, that’s what they demand. Recently, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has also spoken out in favor of Western deliveries of battle tanks, but without explicitly naming Germany. “If you (Ukraine) say they need main battle tanks, then we should take it seriously and supply it to them”, . “The Ukrainians are proving that if they have the right military means, they can defend themselves.”
The Russian attackers in Ukraine are increasingly on the defensive after a Ukrainian counter-offensive and numerous recaptures. A turning point in the war? Difficult to assess, as one does not yet know how the Russians would react. “But in any case it is a clear success that will contribute to the destabilization of Russia.”
Against this background, experts warn that military support for Ukraine should not be cut off if this could now be a decisive factor.
“For attacks and recaptures, the Ukrainian army needs speed, movement, protection and firepower, and that’s exactly what a marten or a battle tank would deliver,” said military expert Carlo Masala, referring to arms deliveries that could also come from Germany. “There are zero arguments why no arms should be delivered to Ukraine.”
That leaves the argument about going it alone – which does not convince the political scientist Thomas Jäger from the University of Cologne.
“The federal government does not present a convincing argument for this”
“The argument is weak because Germany, for example, decided on energy policy under Scholz without consulting other EU countries, with Nord Stream 2 until February 2022 and more recently with the shutdown of the last nuclear power plants,” says Jäger star. “It is also not very convincing because a leading power – a claim that Scholz also makes for Germany – has to convince others to support certain measures.”
The federal government is not taking any such initiatives. Although the supply of tanks from other countries is supported through the exchange of rings, western tanks should not be supplied. “The federal government does not put forward a convincing argument for this if at the same time equipment is supplied that is so modern that not even the Bundeswehr has been equipped with it and other tanks and howitzers have been supplied,” said the expert.
Instead, the chancellor takes special consideration of his party. Scholz is in a difficult position, the SPD is reluctant to make more extensive arms deliveries. “The SPD general secretary,” said Jäger. “Although this is a misjudgment, it reflects the mood in the party, because co-party chairman Lars Klingbeil, who called for military strength and a German leadership role, supports the position that none are currently being delivered when it comes to the delivery of battle tanks must.” Scholz must make sure that the majority of the German public wants him as chancellor – and that the SPD supports his course.
Either way: The pressure on Scholz and the federal government should not decrease on the tank issue.
- “Every day that someone in Berlin is thinking, getting advice, people are dying here because the tank hasn’t been delivered,” according to a visit by his German counterpart Baerbock in Kyiv. “Germany should live up to its leadership role and be the first country to deliver battle tanks,” said Parliament President Ruslan Stefantschuk at the start of his visit to Germany. “A country like Germany don’t wait to see what others do.”
- The CDU and CSU apparently want to submit an application for an expansion of weapons aid to the Bundestag next week, as he reports. In it, the Union calls on the federal government to “immediately grant approval for the export of battle tanks, armored personnel carriers and transport tanks from industrial stocks to Ukraine,” the magazine quoted from the paper.
- And last but not least, the voices in the traffic light alliance are increasing, demanding more far-reaching deliveries. For example, the SPD foreign policy expert Michael Roth brought up a joint delivery of main battle tanks from several European countries: 13 European countries had a total of 2,000 Leopard 2 tanks. He therefore proposes to jointly deliver a contingent to Ukraine.
The federal government is delivering more weapons to Kyiv, but the expectations attached to Berlin on the tank issue are likely to remain.
Source: Stern
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