No one knows what other means Russia’s president might use under increasing pressure to succeed. US President Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz obviously fear a drastic escalation.
How will he react? Some call it so, others so. Vladimir Putin says: “We’re reacting rather cautiously, but that’s the way it is for the time being.”
In the past few days and weeks, Russia’s president has suffered a series of setbacks in his campaign against Ukraine. The Russian army has . That grows in its own country. Most recently, even the heads of state of China and India – both of whom have been instrumental in preventing the Russian economy from collapsing under Western sanctions – are on .
And once again the question arises as to what disastrous consequences the warmonger from the Kremlin could draw from this.
“If the situation continues to develop like this,” Putin said at a summit in Uzbekistan on Friday, “then the answer will be more serious.” The response to the Ukrainian counter-offensive were “warnings”.
On the same day, CIA Deputy Director David S. Cohen said that more or less anything is to be expected. “I don’t think we should underestimate Putin’s commitment to his original goal, which was control of Ukraine,” Cohen said. “We should not underestimate his willingness to take risks.”
Joe Biden apparently sees it that way. The US President wants to avoid provoking Russia at a stage in the war that is far from optimal for Putin – and could prompt him to escalate hostilities drastically.
Joe Biden and the “red line”
Emboldened by the successes in northeastern Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pushing the US for a new and powerful weapon: the , or ATACMS, a missile system with a range of 300 kilometers – which could reach well into Russian territory.
Zelenskyy assures that Ukraine has no intention of attacking Russian territories. “We are not interested in what is happening in Russia”, . “We are only interested in our own territory in Ukraine.”
From the Ukrainian point of view, however, the missile system is crucial for the success of a counter-offensive that is likely to begin in early 2023 – at least that’s what a wish list from Kyiv that was reported on reads. It demands numerous weapons from Washington, and the ATACMS is also listed.
President Biden has so far refused to do so. “We will not send missile systems to Ukraine that hit Russia”, , but without specifying the type of weapon.
Allowing Ukraine to attack Russian territory could escalate the war dramatically. Moscow recently warned against a corresponding arms delivery. The US would cross a “red line” and become a war party. President Biden wants to prevent this, who repeatedly sends the message that he does not want to go to war with Russia, but that he will support Ukraine with military support until the Russian armed forces withdraw.
“America’s purpose is clear,” Biden wrote in a guest post for the late May. “We want a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend against further aggression.” But: “We are not aiming for a war between NATO and Russia.” They will neither bring about Putin’s downfall nor allow themselves to be directly involved in the conflict. And: “We do not encourage or enable Ukraine to strike beyond its borders. We do not want to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia.”
“A very, very important text,” says Olaf Scholz
Anyone who wants to understand why Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) should read Biden’s guest article – says Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “A very, very important text, I think,” he said in an interview with the . “In which he said very clearly: We will support Ukraine, also with very efficient weapons – like the USA and we are doing now (…) – and at the same time it’s the case that of course we always make sure that the war will not escalate.”
Scholz and Biden share the concern of a Russian president who thinks he has his back against the wall – and who, in another irrational decision, will cause the world conflagration.
Under increasing (successful) pressure and with no prospect of victory, Putin could resort to tactical nuclear weapons – a nightmare scenario, . “I’m doing everything to prevent an escalation that will lead to a third world war. There must be no nuclear war,” Chancellor Scholz said of his hesitant action at the end of April in an interview with the . The world must prevent a third world war, repeatedly.
In an interview with CBS, scheduled to air on Sunday, Biden was asked what he would say to Putin if he considers using chemical or tactical nuclear weapons in the wake of recent setbacks. “Not not not”, . “You will change the face of war like nothing since World War II.” The US reaction would be “consequential,” said Biden, without wanting to give details. But: “They would become even more of an outcast in the world than they ever were.”
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Source: Stern
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