According to British intelligence, Russia is having problems implementing partial mobilization. 300,000 reservists will therefore not be able to fight for months. Meanwhile, flights out of Russia are overbooked.
Britain doubts Russia’s ability to partially mobilize 300,000 reservists for the war in Ukraine.
“Russia will probably have to contend with logistical and administrative challenges just to muster the 300,000 soldiers,” said the Ministry of Defense in London on Thursday, citing intelligence findings. The Russian military leadership will probably try to set up new units with the levied troops. But these were “probably not able to fight for months,” it said.
The British Ministry of Defense has been publishing daily information on the course of the war since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine at the end of February, citing the secret service. In doing so, the British government wants to both counter the Russian portrayal and keep allies in line. Moscow accuses London of a targeted disinformation campaign.
Partial mobilization counted as a sign of weakness
The ministry also saw the partial mobilization as a sign of Russian weakness. “The move is effectively an admission that Russia has exhausted its supply of willing volunteers to fight in Ukraine,” the agency said. The convocations are also likely to be very unpopular among the population, it said. In the hope of generating urgently needed combat power, President Vladimir Putin is taking “a considerable political risk”.
The Eastern Europe expert Gwendolyn Sasse sees the first small changes in the social mood after the partial mobilization in Russia. There are minor protests, flights out of Russia are overbooked. “That will continue,” said Sasse on Thursday in the ZDF “Morgenmagazin”. Younger men in particular, who had previously held back from assessing the war, are likely to change their attitude after the announcement of partial mobilization in the war against Ukraine. But it is also clear that there is currently no mobilization “from below” against President Vladimir Putin.
Expert: Partial mobilization will not change the military situation
According to the director of the Center for East European and International Studies at Berlin’s Humboldt University, the partial mobilization will not change the current military situation. The 300,000 reservists to be called up would have to be trained and equipped. That looks more like preparation for the end of the year or the spring of next year, said Sasse. It is unclear whether this will be enough to change the dynamics of the war.
The day before, Putin had ordered the partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists to close personnel gaps in the war of aggression against Ukraine.
Source: Stern
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