Olaf Scholz has the best chance of winning the election. But then he doesn’t have a government for a long time. The parties buzz around coalition statements. We voters would like to know where we are. The only thing that seems certain is that it may take time.
Angela Merkel shouldn’t be prepared for a relaxed Christmas. Quite a few political observers are almost certain that she will still have to give the address for the holidays this year. Because the Chancellor continues the official business until a successor has been elected and a new government is in place. But that can take a while.
According to the current polls for the federal election, a tripartite alliance will probably be necessary. That took a long time last time and ultimately did not work because the FDP withdrew after weeks from the coalition negotiations on a “Jamaica” alliance (Christian Lindner at the time: “It is better not to govern than to govern wrongly”). And this time? The statements in the most recent TV rounds and elsewhere suggest that we will need patience again after the election. Because the mathematical possibility of forming a coalition is one thing, the willingness of the parties to find the respective alliances is another. What do quotations from the election campaign reveal – possibly between the lines?
Big coalition
“You can be sure that this is my whole goal, as incidentally, as I have the impression, that of many citizens, that the CDU / CSU can now recover in the opposition.” ()
With the comeback of the SPD, the formation of a new Groko has become possible again, according to the latest surveys. The Union always emphasizes, however, that it is not available as a junior partner in a government; . Scholz also excludes a red-black alliance in his quote. But: That is “his goal”, which he will by no means achieve with certainty. And last time, too, the SPD had excluded a new Groko before the election. What if the constellation turned black and red again?
Red-green-red
“The federal government must pursue an active foreign policy and the left has recently made it clear that it cannot bear this international responsibility.” (.
“If you cannot ensure the ability to act in foreign policy, there is no basis for government.” ((Paid content))
“Anyone who wants to govern in Germany must have clear positions. He must commit to transatlantic cooperation, he must clearly state that NATO is indispensable for our security and that we must fulfill our obligations in the alliance, he must clearly agree to a strong one Confess to the sovereign European Union. ” ()
“Foreign policy is a bit more than the military and NATO. Foreign policy is also development cooperation, it is a just world economic order and fair free trade agreements, so foreign policy is a whole lot more. (…) If there is a majority on September 26th for The SPD, the Greens and the Left, a mathematical one, then we should talk very seriously about how we can shape a policy change. ” ()
The situation is clear: the left wants red-green-red, their only option for government participation. Olaf Scholz may at least keep the power option open and hopes between the lines for the possibility of reaching enough concessions in coalition negotiations. Baerbock’s statements seem to rule out an alliance with the left for reasons of foreign policy more clearly, but she also pointed out in the ARD / ZDF triell that it is “extremely dangerous” if democratic parties do not talk to each other. Their conclusion: “We will talk to all democratic parties.”
Traffic light from SPD, Greens and FDP
“We find that the Union is surprisingly weakened. We see the red-green flirtation with the Left Party, the FDP has a special responsibility to organize a policy in the middle. (…) I lack the imagination which offer Red-Green could make of the FDP. In 2017 we proved that we are not open to a left shift in politics. ” ()
“If social democracy returns to the qualities that made it strong in the past, then a really progressive alliance could emerge from this.” ()
A traffic light coalition is currently considered to be one of the most likely options for forming the future government – especially because the Greens and the SPD have always expressed their willingness to work together, and Olaf Scholz has also named another option as the first option. FDP boss Christian Lindner has made it clear how difficult this is likely to be. Lindner will demand concessions from the SPD and the Greens that will inspire his imagination to work together. That such an alliance can be concluded is still conceivable, whether it would be stable, but no one can predict with certainty. The fact that his party would be of particular importance in the traffic light can be seen as an indication that the liberals would not ultimately refuse, as they did in 2017: “Prevention is a very modest claim to design,” said Lindner, also in the ARD Vierkampf.
Germany coalition made up of the SPD, Union and FDP
“There are more substantive similarities with the Union than with others.” ()
“As the CDU / CSU we have the right to lead a coalition. That is why we are campaigning for us to grow, to become stronger in the next two weeks and then there is a chance that we will form a coalition under a bourgeois leadership with the CDU / CSU can also organize with Armin Laschet as Federal Chancellor, and a German coalition is an option that has my sympathy simply because it does not involve the Greens. ” – Inquiry: “Under the leadership of the SPD?” – “Under the leadership of the Union.” ()
“Nobody can imagine a junior partner.” ()
A clear rejection from union circles to a red-black-yellow alliance. Instead, the CSU men again emphasize the Union’s claim to leadership, which seems immovable. Dobrindt therefore names black-red-yellow one possibility. Not only Dobrindt should prefer a three-way alliance without the Greens in the Union. It is unclear whether Scholz or the SPD would agree to be available as a junior partner for a German coalition. It would ultimately be something like the extended continuation of Groko, who is so unloved in the party left.
Jamaica coalition of the Union, Greens and FDP
“I come from a functioning Jamaica coalition in Schleswig-Holstein. I negotiated a coalition agreement with Robert Habeck that is still in place today. The government in Schleswig-Holstein is fairly stable and is also recognized by the population. So it is possible . (…) We have a preference for Jamaica. ” ()
“From today’s perspective, the fact that there is enough black and yellow is a very optimistic option. The only conceivable option is Jamaica.” ()
“There is a lot of overlap with the FDP in terms of parliamentary and civil rights. We have launched a joint constitutional complaint against the state Trojan. In return, tax policy and social policy are different.” ()
“There is a moderate rapprochement with the FDP. The overlap has become much greater.” ()
A Jamaica alliance has a comparatively large amount of credit because of the successful example in Schleswig-Holstein – not least because the top candidate for the Greens, Robert Habeck, was involved in the formation of the Kiel coalition. However, Habeck, Baerbock and Co. are opposed to a strong bourgeois bloc that would slow down the demanding green claims in terms of climate protection. Nevertheless, signals are coming from all parties involved that one could imagine a Jamaica coalition – which is unusual in itself. However: 2017 was again about Jamaica, in the end it did not come about.
The second can also be the winner if he can organize a majority
The two-party alliances red-green, black-yellow and black-green in all probability no longer have any prospect of becoming strong enough to form a government. Another reason why the formation of a government is likely to take a particularly long time. “We will have an election evening with several chancellor options – not just one”, (paid content). The question then is who can forge a government alliance. “The second can also be the winner in the end if he can shape majorities.”
One comment gives Angela Merkel hope that she will be able to spend relaxing holidays at the end of the year. It comes from (paid content): “The goal must be a government by Christmas” – a quarter of a year after the election date.
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