Fighting in the east, in the south and “a second Belarusian front, so to speak.” According to military expert Carlo Masala, the war in Ukraine is at a turning point.
According to military expert Carlo Masala, the war between Russia and Ukraine has reached a turning point. “The war is turning right now,” said the politics professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich on Tuesday star– “Ukraine – the situation”. Ukraine is coming under pressure in several places: “We’re fighting in the east, we’re fighting in the south, we have a second Belarusian front, so to speak, we’re shelling the big cities,” explains Masala.
Counter-offensive “basically came to a halt”
“The Ukrainians have been deprived of the initiative,” he says. Their counter-offensive in the occupied territories had “in principle come to a halt”. However, this does not change the massive problems of the Russian armed forces. The fact that they now rely on simply constructed Iranian drones, while the Ukrainians have modern equipment, is a paradoxical situation. And also “another indication that the material is running out with the Russians”.
Masala speaks of a “new phase” in the conflict in which Russia wants to prove its abilities. “Preparation is being made for Putin to offer a ceasefire at some point.” The military expert points to the challenges on both sides: Russia’s economic difficulties, problems with partial mobilization and the military setbacks. At the same time, high energy prices, energy security issues and the steep rise in inflation could change the situation and mood overall in the West. If Putin offers a ceasefire, “we have a new situation.”
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dr Carlo Masala is Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich.
Russia underestimated Ukraine and its allies
Masala has repeatedly warned against a ceasefire agreement that would only give the Russians an opportunity to regenerate and then continue the military conflict. According to his analysis, however, if President Vladimir Putin made a realistic assessment of the situation, he would have to realize that he could not gain much in Ukraine. Masala sees a connection between an offer of a ceasefire and Russia’s intention not to define the final borders of the illegally annexed areas until the end of the year. Russia underestimated the determination and how long the West would support the attacked Ukraine.
Source: Stern
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