Armin Laschet’s chances of getting into the Chancellery appear dwindlingly low in view of past mistakes and current forecasts. Everything is still possible for the Union’s candidate for chancellor.
Armin Laschet literally stepped into the ring in the fight for the chancellery. The Union’s top candidate began his election campaign in a youth boxing camp in Frankfurt am Main. He was optimistic, aggressive. With his boxing gloves on, he even dealt a couple of blows to a trainer. “The CDU will fight in this election campaign,” announced Laschet. The message: this election campaign will not be carried out with kid gloves.
A few weeks later, shortly before the general election, Laschet seems to have been relegated to the mat. In all TV three-way battles. He does not have a good standing with the accountants, as do all the survey institutes. And your own entourage is already boxing out.
The Union’s candidate for chancellor appears visibly counted. But has he already been knocked out?
Because they don’t know who to choose
Everything is still possible for Laschet, a victory on points is possible. The candidate is struggling these days for the liberation – for example with a “future team”, or most recently an “agenda for equal living conditions”, which is primarily intended to move voters from East Germany to the polls. His strategy: to gather undecided voters in his corner of the ring, on the one hand, and to mobilize his own electorate, on the other.
Because they still don’t know if they want to vote and if so, then whom. Ultimately, they could make the difference: The Union is only three percentage points behind the SPD, the race is close, every slight shift could turn the situation – especially since the lead is in the area of error tolerance ().
In addition, Laschet could possibly draw from a “CDU reserve”, as Forsa boss Manfred Güllner said: Among the undecided there were noticeably many ex-Union voters who could still be addressed – whereas the SPD reservoir appeared to be emptied.
And so Laschet and his people lay two baits on their vote-catching shortly before the election, on the assumption that potential voters: the inside just about to bite: the alleged threat from a left-wing alliance – and Chancellor Merkel.
For weeks the Union has been conjuring up the scenario of a “leftist republic” (), rummaging around in “red socks”. The calculation is clear: to bring a possible alliance of R2G (SPD, Greens and Left) into disrepute, to present it as a danger – and to mobilize the conservative core clientele against it.
On Monday, Laschet declared the election to be a directional decision again. On election Sunday it is “more important than who wins first place and who comes second,” he said and modeled the greatest possible height of fall. The SPD is “a threat to prosperity and security”, which, as the second-placed force, wants to form a government with the Greens and the Left, if this results in a majority of the Chancellors.
A clear call to the conservative electorate: the Union needs a strong mandate to prevent this scenario from occurring.
Reminder from Munich
The Union politician tried to outline what the Federal Republic could otherwise flourish with an indirect criticism of the TV three-way battles. “Bourgeois positions were in the minority in all trials,” Laschet said of the and that. In the country it is different, “the people do not want a left alliance to turn our country inside out.” The broadcasts would have shown the voters: “which directional decision lies ahead of them”. Above all, the last three-way fight on TV had shown “how close the SPD and the Greens are already, and how congruent many of their positions are with the Left Party”. At least a remarkable red-green agreement could not be dismissed out of hand.
That creates pressure. Laschet’s only realistic power option is a so-called Jamaica coalition (CDU / CSU, Greens and FDP), which could also be led by the Union if it finishes behind the SPD – at least with a view to the current figures. Whether the calculation would work out in practice depends not least on the possible coalition partners.
Because even a traffic light alliance (SPD, Greens, FDP) would be possible according to the forecasts. It is therefore hardly surprising that Laschet is now vehemently warning against this option: “The FDP would be constantly threatened with expulsion at a traffic light – because the left would be ready immediately,” he told the newspapers. Provided with a friendly reminder to the FDP party leader, who knows “that the Union is a reliable partner.” Laschet leads a black-yellow coalition in North Rhine-Westphalia.
But in any case, the sister party does not want to be satisfied with a second place in the federal election. Only when the Union is in front of the SPD, said CSU boss Markus Söder on Monday after a board meeting, there is “the chance of governing in the end”. Previously, the head of the regional group, Alexander Dobrindt, had emphasized that the government mandate would go “to the strongest parliamentary group in the Bundestag”. “I just lack the imagination for a government led by a second-placed Union.”
Two clear announcements to top candidate Laschet – but also to the voters: inside, to make the cross with the Union.
Original
On the last few meters, Laschet can also hope for Chancellor Merkel, who will step into the ring after her previous reluctance to campaign for Laschet. In Merkel’s constituency of Stralsund, the two want to appear together this Tuesday, followed by events in Munich (Friday) and Aachen (Saturday), the home of the top candidate.
The Chancellor, who will not run again after 16 years in office,. She is still, and by far,. Your work is done by the voters: inside. As a result, the candidates tried to cling to Merkel’s skirts and her political legacy – but so far only SPD man Scholz has succeeded.
Scholz did the one that the SPD advertises for him with the slogan:. The Union recently accused him. In the final spurt, images are apparently to be created that counteract his staging as the most worthy Merkel heir and encourage the electorate to vote for the original – and not the alleged sham.
Could the Chancellor Bonus make a difference? Not excluded. Also because comparable alliances in the past – as she recalls – have been crowned with success. Both for the Union (Konrad Adenauer and Ludwig Erhard) and for the SPD (Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt).
In any case, it is too early for Laschet to throw in the towel. The fight for the Chancellery has not yet been decided. Whether the Union’s candidate for chancellor will get away with a black eye is due to many uncertainties.
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