Will the Bundestag election be decided in the new federal states? At least the results there could ensure that there is a shortage in the federal government. The focus is on the alternative for Germany.
According to opinion pollster Matthias Jung, the large influx of the AfD in East Germany can also be explained by economic interests.
It goes “of course also about the fact that one wants to get higher allocations for East Germany with protest voting behavior, as well as a faster adjustment of wages or pensions”, said the board of the research group elections of the German press agency. Such tactical protest voters exist next to the AfD supporters with a “closed right-wing radical view of the world”.
According to surveys, the alternative for Germany could become the strongest party in the Bundestag election on Sunday in Saxony, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt. Nationwide, the AfD was most recently around eleven percent – for example in Saxony it was 26 percent. Although no other party in the Bundestag wants to work with the AfD, their share of the vote is significant, said Jung. “Because it limits the other parties’ ability to form a coalition.”
The Dresden political scientist Hans Vorländer expects the AfD’s strength to last in East Germany. “The AfD has also established itself organizationally in individual milieus and groups, including in companies,” said the professor at TU Dresden. “This is a tribe that she can fall back on. And it can expand it when certain topics become particularly strong. ” The party is also in demand among young people. “There are new voters growing back,” said the expert.
The other parties could only counteract if they presented themselves as carers in the middle of society. “Many are afraid to go there because they fear being covered with hatred and malice and yelled at in the street,” said Vorländer.
The political scientist explained the significantly improved SPD poll results in several East German federal states: “This is due to Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz, who is pulling you up.” At the same time, Union candidate Armin Laschet weakens the CDU. “What the Scholz bonus is for the SPD, the Laschet penalty is for the CDU.” Due to the lack of fixed party structures, voters in the East are even more oriented towards people, and Scholz stands for the “continuity of the tried and tested”.
Both experts said that the federal elections will not be decided in the five eastern German states – only about ten million of the 60.4 million German voters live there. But decisive votes could be lost there. “The Bundestag election will not be won in the East, but will be lost if there is a lack of percentages in one place or another,” said Vorländer.
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