Only on Saturday did Russia suspend the agreement to export grain from Ukraine. Now Moscow is unexpectedly making a U-turn. But Putin makes it clear: Russia could get out again.
After massive international criticism of a new grain blockade, Russia is now again entering into the agreement on grain exports from Ukraine. The ships with wheat, corn and other food should therefore be able to continue to travel through a safe corridor in the Black Sea.
Moscow gave the reason for the U-turn as having received written security guarantees from Kyiv that the sea corridor would not be used for combat operations. The grain deal is important in the fight against world hunger.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised the resumption as a significant diplomatic result. “The Russian blackmail has led to nothing,” said Zelenskyj in his evening video address. In particular, he highlighted the work of the mediators UN and Turkey and other partners. “Once again, everyone has seen that in our region there is only one threat to global food security, and that is the Russian Federation and nobody else,” he stressed.
Putin does not rule out another exit
However, shortly after the announcement, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin did not rule out a new exit from the agreement, should there be violations from a Russian perspective. “Russia reserves the right to withdraw from these agreements in the event that the guarantees are violated by Ukraine,” Putin told a video conference with the National Security Council on Wednesday. Even if the agreement is withdrawn, Russia is prepared to allow grain deliveries intended for poorer countries to pass through the agreed corridor.
In the Presidential Office of Ukraine, the return of Russia was understood as the “end of blackmail” by Moscow. “From a geopolitical perspective, what happened that day puts a stop to the many years of blackmail diplomacy Russia has engaged in,” Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, wrote on Telegram. “They don’t know any other diplomacy there, which is why they are also losing in the modern world,” he wrote on Wednesday.
Russia suspended the deal on Saturday, accusing Ukraine of using the Black Sea to launch attacks against Russia. Kyiv then accused Moscow of a new grain blockade like at the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine.
Mediation between Turkey and the UN
Thanks to the mediation of Turkey and the United Nations, Ukraine has pledged not to use the sea corridor and ports for hostilities against Russia. That is sufficient for the moment to fulfill the agreement, it said in Moscow. The prominent Russian foreign politician and member of the Duma, Leonid Slutsky, justified Moscow’s concession by not allowing a food crisis and hunger in the developing countries.
The transports would continue on Wednesday, said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who spoke to Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin about the agreement the day before and probably convinced him of the about-face. Deliveries should primarily target poorer countries. On the other hand, a UN spokeswoman for the coordination center in Istanbul told the German Press Agency that there would be no ships in the corridor on Wednesday.
Putin praised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s role in mediation and “overall Turkey’s neutrality in the conflict” with Ukraine. The agreement was only concluded with a view to food security in the world. According to Putin, Erdogan is also committed to the interests of poorer countries.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called the resumption in an interview with “Welt” an “expression of how strong international cohesion is”. Russia tried again to “use hunger as a weapon”. But the world community, led by the United Nations, made it clear: “No, we don’t believe your lies,” said Baerbock.
Moscow surprisingly suspended the deal
Russia surprisingly suspended the agreement on Saturday after the drone attacks on the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea. According to the Ministry of Defense in Moscow, the reason was the “terrorist attacks” on the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. The Ministry accused the British Navy of having given the instructions for shelling the peninsula with drones. According to Russian information, a minesweeper was also damaged. Great Britain rejected the allegations.
Moscow’s about-face at least shows that Putin remains a rational politician to a certain extent and can also give in, said Russian analyst Tatyana Stanovaya. “The Kremlin fell into the trap itself and didn’t know how to get out of it. They suspended the deal, but in the end they didn’t know how to stop grain exports,” says the expert. Russia did not want to shoot at the grain ships.
The UN coordinator for the export of Ukrainian grain, Amir Abdulla, welcomed the resumption of the agreement. “I look forward to working again with all parties to the initiative,” he said on Twitter.
For weeks, Russia had been threatening a possible halt to the grain agreement, which has brought Ukrainian food back onto the world market since the summer. Above all, Moscow continues to be bothered by the fact that even in the wake of Western sanctions it cannot export grain and fertilizers on the desired scale.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized again on Wednesday that removing these obstacles is key to the continued existence of the agreement, which will initially apply until November 19. “It’s an integral part of the deal,” Peskow said. There are still problems.
Re-entry is a partial success for Kyiv
For Ukraine, the Russian re-entry is a partial success in the war that has been going on for more than eight months. In the past few days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has complained that Russia is blocking the passage of ships laden with grain. He stressed the importance of these shipments in fighting world hunger.
Although the war continues to hamper exports, Ukraine has exported millions of tons of food by sea since the Grains Agreement came into force, Zelenskyy said recently. 60 percent of the amount went to Africa and Asia. According to the UN, a total of almost 10 million tons of goods were transported under the agreement.
After Russia’s concession, the World Food Program (WFP) spoke of good news for the world’s hungry. “For millions of people in need around the world, these ships are a beacon of hope that can save lives,” said Martin Frick, head of the Berlin office of the UN organization, the German Press Agency. Since signing the deal last summer, WFP has shipped more than 220,000 tons of wheat from Ukrainian ports to hungry people in Afghanistan, Ethiopia and Yemen. Another 160,000 tons were to follow soon.
In July, Russia, mediated by the United Nations and Turkey, agreed to grain exports, but always threatened to scrap the four-month agreement. In the agreement, Russia agreed to end the blockade of Ukrainian seaports for grain exports, but in return demanded relief for its own exports of fertilizers and food. Russia and Ukraine are both major grain exporters, earning billions from exports.
Source: Stern
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