Minister Svenja Schulze called the decisions of the climate conference a year ago historical. The end of the fossil age seemed to be heralded. Now the next summit is coming up. What was done?
It was a premiere in the 25-year history of the world climate summit: a year ago, the UN conference in Scotland heralded the global farewell to coal. For the first time there was a consensus among around 200 countries – at least on paper, recorded in the “Glasgow Climate Pact”. Other agreements were also proudly announced, such as stopping deforestation or reducing the greenhouse gas methane. But what has become of it, shortly before the start of the next UN climate conference on November 6th in Egypt?
Less coal burning and stop fossil subsidies?
After a tough struggle in Glasgow, the states promised for the first time to gradually shut down the climate-damaging coal combustion. “Inefficient” subsidies for oil, gas and coal are also to be abolished. In a “coalition of the willing”, more than 40 countries have also pledged to say goodbye to coal completely: the industrialized countries in the 2030s, others by the 2040s at the latest. In addition, a number of states assured that they would no longer invest in coal, oil and gas – including Germany, belatedly.
A few months later, Russia invaded Ukraine – and the war threw a lot of things upside down. Because Russian gas no longer flows to Europe, Germany, for example, is investing billions in new liquid gas terminals on the coast. Coal-fired power plants were also restarted to guarantee the power supply this winter. It is similar in other parts of Europe. Nevertheless, everyone assures that they want to achieve the EU climate protection target, i.e. to save at least 55 percent of greenhouse gases by 2030 compared to 1990.
The trend is also pointing in the wrong direction when it comes to subsidies for coal, oil and gas. As the industrialized nations organization OECD and the energy agency IEA reported at the end of August, total funding for the production and consumption of fossil fuels in a total of 51 countries doubled in 2021 to USD 697.2 billion – in 2020 it was USD 362.4 billion. “Subsidies for fossil fuels are a barrier to a more sustainable future – but in times of high and volatile energy prices, it is even more difficult for governments to phase them out,” summarizes IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol soberly.
Stop deforestation?
If the world continues to cut down its green lungs, the climate goals will be unattainable – experts agree. In Glasgow, more than 140 countries therefore committed to stopping deforestation by 2030 and massively reforesting it. The recently published evaluation of the Forest Declaration Assessment, which is also funded with federal funds, comes to the conclusion that the pace must increase significantly if this goal is to be achieved.
In 2021, for example, deforestation was reduced by only 6.3 percent compared to the period from 2018 to 2020 – in the tropical forests by only around three percent. 10 percent per year would be necessary to achieve the goal. After all, afforestation is progressing: in the past two decades, an area the size of Peru has been afforested, and many countries have a positive net balance. Still, deforestation far outpaced afforestation, and 100 million hectares of forest were lost worldwide.
“Many countries are jeopardizing their progress by scaling back or phasing out forest protection,” said Erin Matson of Climate Focus, which was involved in the report. Indonesia, for example, has not renewed its palm oil moratorium and has introduced a job program that is endangering forests.
The electoral defeat of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro gives hope. “We will end illegal gold mining and fight deforestation very seriously,” announced election winner Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The federal government therefore also wants to release subsidies for the protection of the rainforest again. The funds from the “Amazon Fund” were put on hold during Bolsonaro’s tenure.
Less methane emissions?
Everyone is talking about CO2 – but the second most harmful climate gas, methane, also causes enormous damage in the atmosphere and must be reduced. Under the leadership of the USA and the EU, more than 100 countries in Glasgow set themselves the goal of reducing methane emissions by at least 30 percent by 2030 compared to 2020. Even China and the US wanted to work together strategically, although China – like India and Russia – has not formally joined the pact. The glimmer of hope quickly dimmed as the geopolitical situation worsened over the course of the year and China and the US ditched all cooperation.
In addition, the World Weather Organization (WMO) made an alarming discovery: According to this, the concentration of the powerful greenhouse gas methane in the atmosphere has never increased as much as in 2021 since systematic measurements began almost 40 years ago. “The reason for this extraordinary increase is not clear, it seems but to be due to both biological and man-made processes,” it said. The concentration of methane in the atmosphere reached a high in 2021, as did that of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide – each since measurements of these greenhouse gases began.
“We have seen the first money being put on the table, led by the United States, Germany, Norway and Canada,” says E3G think tank expert Maria Pastukhova on the project’s progress. The international Changing Markets Foundation criticizes that the EU itself does not use its legislative powers to use the decisive levers in agricultural policy, for example.
Stricter climate targets?
“The momentum in climate protection since COP26 has slowed down overall,” notes E3G expert Tom Evans. Although all countries have bindingly agreed to tighten their national climate targets for 2030 within a year, only 26 have done so so far, and some only minimally. Reaching the 1.5 degree target is completely out of reach. “The pace of implementation of these plans remains insufficient,” says Evans.
OECD and IEA on fossil fuel subsidies 2021, English Climate Pact of Glasgow, English evaluation of the Forest Declaration Platform report of the Changing Markets Foundation
Source: Stern
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