opinion
The Americans have voted – and the result is not yet entirely clear. What can already be said is that the Republicans have done worse than they had hoped. The Democrats could have been spared the catastrophe. And at a golf resort in Florida, Republicans’ new favorite state, the presidential campaign will begin in a few days.
It’s midnight on the east coast, Americans have voted. And there are, really, some reasons for optimism. The red wave, the big Republican victory? Not overwhelming. In the Senate, it looks as if the Democrats could maintain or even expand their narrow majority. We won’t know for sure until the next few hours. Or, if Georgia has a runoff, it won’t be until December 6th.
In the fight for the House of Representatives, the Democrats won many districts across the country that, according to polls, should have gone to the Republicans. Before we know the bottom line, one thing is clear: it could have been a lot worse for the Democrats. Even if, as expected, the Republicans win the House majority. That’s nothing special at first: 20 years ago, a governing party was last able to hold a majority in the midterm elections.
Ron DeSanti’s victory in Florida as a template for the presidential candidacy
The good thing about these midterms is that some Trump friends have lost. There’s the gubernatorial candidate in the state of Pennsylvania, a right-wing conspiracy theorist: his defeat is already certain. In the same state, things are looking bad for candidate for the Senate post, television doctor Mehmet Oz. In Georgia, a more moderate Republican governor won, while Trump-backed Senate candidate Herschel Walker is in danger of failing.
But there is no uniform picture. Another Trump nominee, JD Vance, is the new Senator from Ohio. With Ohio and Florida, two states that were still considered swing states a few years ago have turned into Republican homeland. Election nights in Florida used to be the most exciting. This time Governor Ron DeSantis won easily, for him it is the template for a presidential candidacy in two years. The conservative Cuban exiles and Northern retirees who have moved to Florida have secured the state for the Republicans. In addition, DeSantis himself, popular because of his lax Covid policy.
Perhaps that is a first conclusion of these elections: the Republicans have not achieved a triumph. At the same time, they have shown that they are also capable of winning elections as a right-wing Trump party. Voters forgive Republicans for their denial of election results, their attacks on democracy, and their general insanity simply because they believe they can do better economic policies.
Almost fascists and fascists around Trump already control the party today
For the Republican Party, this means that they can continue as before. The establishment does not need to part ways with the Trump wing, for which it would be too late anyway. Republicans can be moderate here and radical there. The voters are letting them get away with it. This is very bad news for American democracy, because nothing fosters fascism more than conservative parties believing they can contain it. In truth, the near-fascists and fascists around Trump already control the party today. No Republican was more at stake in these elections than the one who wasn’t on any ballot: Donald Trump.
These are elections with such ambiguous outcomes that all sides can make of them what they will. For the Democrats, there will probably be no catastrophe, the loss of both houses of Congress. Joe Biden will have to deal with the Republican-dominated House of Representatives: The Republicans now have a say in the budget and in individual items such as aid to Ukraine. They can threaten to ban the government from taking on new debt, thereby blackmailing it. Biden will have to accommodate them and make compromises. Gone are the days when the President pushed big bills through Congress.
It is almost certain what one will do with the election result: Trump will announce his candidacy for the White House in a few days. And if he tries another coup in two years like last time, then he will have a decisive advantage: the majority in the House of Representatives. This is the body that has to certify the election result every time. Most recently on January 6, 2021. At that time, Democrat Nancy Pelosi chaired it. In early 2025 it will be a Republican.
The Republican majority may not be as large as the polls predict. Nevertheless, with the House and the Supreme Court, two of the most important institutions in Washington will soon be in the hands of the Trump party, which has become radical. This is helpful in coups.
Source: Stern

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