Federal election 2021: the first projections and forecasts in the analysis

These are different topics that excite and interest different sections of the population. Obviously, the pandemic has shown that there is a Need for modernization of German politics and administration. In other words: schools, companies and their taxation, care and health system.

The topic of digitization has an impact on several areas. In this case, the Government not smeared with glory. Social inequality and housing policy also remain important concerns.

What points of criticism did the voters make to cast their vote in this election?

At first, that doesn’t match my assessments beforehand. I thought that the AfD’s mobilization of non-voters at the time could not be beaten. Obviously I was wrong.

aside from that they were rather weak candidates, a dissatisfied population and with the pandemic a constant topic of conversation. Therefore, I thought, more people are staying away from the polling stations. That was obviously not the case – initially on the basis of the prognosis – and it is actually a very sympathetic reaction, namely to vote when you have criticism of the government.

Let’s take a look at the turnout: Many people in Germany were undecided until shortly before the election. Since noon today, the message has repeatedly appeared that voter turnout could be higher this year, but at the same time it is lower than in 2017. How does that fit together?

No, obviously not!

Convincing the grandparents didn’t work?

Of course, it would have changed something, especially thanks to younger voters. Now the majority of the electorate is over 50 years old. The boys must succeed in mobilizing their grandparents. That didn’t work. In other words: voters are interested in very different topics. In addition to the climate, also the economy, digitization, education, inequality, pensions and health, to name just a few.

Would it have changed anything if 16-year-olds were allowed to vote in this federal election?

In the surveys, they were between 14 and 17 percent. I expected more momentum for the Greens from the climate debate – despite the relative weakness of the top candidate.

After all, Annalena Baerbock was the only one who entered the election campaign with a clear motive for change. Scholz and Laschet – as familiar faces – were comparatively established and committed to the old government.

How surprised were you by the Greens’ “weakness”? You are currently at 15 percent.

That is within the scope of what is to be expected. The relative The Greens’ weakness surprised me though. I also lost a bottle of wine – I saw the Union a percentage point or two ahead of the SPD.

However, nothing has been decided yet, we certainly will fear until the morning have to. After election day we have two possible coalitions. But tonight we will know who will lead these.

How surprising are the first forecasts for you?

I was right at the polling station with me in Bielefeld. I wanted to see what the mood is like on site. It was actually relatively quiet.

At least 40 percent should have voted by postal vote, it could be even more. Did you also submit your cross by letter or were you at the ballot box today?

Good evening, Ms. Leitner.