For the green club boss in the National Council, Sigi Maurer, the matter was completely clear after the first projections: “The FP has been voted out,” she said in the TV polling studio of the ON news in Linz’s Ursulinenhof. Maurer saw in the Greens the next logical coalition partner of the People’s Party in Upper Austria.
There is only one small problem for this view of things: VP and Greens would only have a gossamer majority of one mandate in the state parliament – this is not a reassuring basis for a six-year legislative period. So does the black-green variant fail because of the bare numbers?
Provincial governor and state VP chief Thomas Stelzer has already brought his closest circle together in recent days to deliberate on the strength of a coalition partner after election day. As expected, he didn’t want to commit himself yesterday.
- ON-TV: Interview with Thomas Stelzer
As of yesterday, the People’s Party is once again the clear and undisputed strongest force in the country, but a logical coalition partner – unlike in 2015 with the FP – does not impose itself.
Cheap Freedom?
Yesterday the Upper Austrian political celebrities from then and now crowded into the voting center of Linz’s Ursulinenhof. Quite a few black grandees of the past assume that the People’s Party could once again opt for the Freedom Party: “The losses make the FP even cheaper,” said one.
The coalition possibilities of the state VP at a glance:
VP-FP: It’s no secret that many black leaders would like the current coalition to continue. It is said that they got together well. In addition, after 2015, the People’s Party itself took a tough course on the immigration issue, not least influenced by the Federal Chancellor and Federal Vice President Sebastian Kurz. One does not want to soften this course, also in order not to open a flank to the FP again. In addition, outside the coalition, the FP would certainly be a more uncompromising opponent than the Greens or the SP. Against the FP, however, speaks their strict anti-vaccination campaign, in which Federal FP boss Herbert Kickl aggressively set the tone in the country. “We won’t just be able to ignore that,” says a senior VP. Second risk factor: The FP is, see Ibiza, always good for capers, which from the federal government can have a destabilizing effect on the state party.
VP-Grne: The VP formed a coalition with the Greens from 2003 to 2015, but broad circles of the party do not show any great longing for a new edition. You strangle above all with the current top staff of the Greens, above all with the state councilor and Greens boss Stefan Kaineder. In addition, the migration issue would repeatedly create potential for conflict in a partnership, and the VP’s economic wing also fears a too far-reaching climate offensive. The fact that the coalition of VP and Greens is also unstable in the federal government could also lead to unrest in a state coalition. Conclusion: The People’s Party is currently not really convinced of the charm of the green variant.
VP-SP: And a good old black-red coalition? Everything that smells of a former grand coalition has been of repute in the People’s Party for some time. Many top VP representatives have drifted apart with their former permanent partner so sustainably that the SP card was hardly discussed in the public debate. This variant also lacks any substantive message that one would have with the FP on the subject of immigration and with the Greens with climate initiatives. What this option leaves open, however, is the fact that Stelzer’s power-pragmatic approach could see benefits in an alliance with red Linz and the red trade unionists.
Who moves into the state government?
The SP should have achieved one goal yesterday: In all likelihood, it will again provide two state councilors in the next state government because the Freedom Party will lose one of its three seats. Wolfgang Klinger (FP) is likely to leave the government.
The distribution of government seats should therefore be as follows: four as before for the VP, two for the FP, two for the SP and one for the Greens.
In the SP, however, there were also calculations in which, according to electoral arithmetic, the third seat of government of the FP could move to the VP and this would then have five seats. In the People’s Party, however, they saw no chance of this.
