The CDU achieved a historically bad result. Who could get the lost Union votes? The graph on voter migration shows it.
Left slide prevented? What Armin Laschet and his fellow campaigners had given as a major election goal in the run-up to the election was – to put it mildly – only moderately successful in view of the voter migration in the Bundestag election. Infratest Dimap analyzed the stream of voters for ARD. The result shows that the Union parties have lost a large chunk this year to left-wing parties of all places.
Most of them went to the SPD, but also to the Greens and even to Die Linke, votes were cast by people who turned away from the CDU / CSU in the elections this year. A considerable part of the former Union loyalists stayed in the bourgeois camp and this time voted for the FDP. The loss towards the AfD was at least limited for the CDU / CSU. In addition: Many voters of the Union parties have apparently decided this year not to put a cross at all.
The SPD won the largest share of the vote from people who did not vote in 2017. In turn, the FDP and the Greens each managed to win over many new voters in this election.
Overall, the Greens fell short of the expectations they had set themselves, but were able to steal votes from almost all parties.
The graphic below shows the complete overview of the voter flows.
Graphic: Voter flows in the 2021 federal election
Those: / Infratest Dimap
In the video: According to an election analysis by Infratest dimap for ARD, the FDP is the most successful party among first-time voters, closely followed by the Greens. On Twitter, users puzzle over the motivations of the first-time voters.
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