In the middle of the night in Bali it was announced that a rocket had hit Poland. The first concerns at the G20 summit: a Russian attack? Then much points to a different explanation.
A rocket hit on NATO territory in Poland has turned the holiday island of Bali into a place of crisis diplomacy.
The most important heads of state and government from the West were surprised by the news more than 10,000 kilometers away – at the G20 summit of the large industrialized and emerging countries. Because of the big time difference, most of them found out in the middle of the night: Chancellor Olaf Scholz in his hotel around three in the morning.
At least two people were killed. Initially there were concerns that the shelling could have come from Russia. The war in Ukraine would thus have reached NATO territory. After a series of hectic crisis meetings, there was a lot of evidence pointing to a missile from Ukraine – a misguided anti-aircraft missile against the constant shelling from Russia. But there are still many open questions. An overview:
What is known about the rocket impact so far?
According to the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it is a Russian-made missile. It struck on Tuesday afternoon on the premises of a farm in Przewodow – a village in the far east of the country, less than ten kilometers from the border with Ukraine and thus also from NATO’s eastern border. Two Poles died. Moscow quickly and vigorously denied that it was a Russian attack. Instead, the Ministry of Defense spoke of a “targeted provocation”.
who fired
According to Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, it was not a targeted attack on the NATO country. There is also no evidence that the missile was fired by Russia, but there is a high probability that it was a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile, Duda said in Warsaw on Wednesday.
US President Joe Biden previously said in Bali that the trajectory made it “unlikely” that a missile was launched from Russia. Behind closed doors, he told the allies that it could be an anti-aircraft missile from Ukraine’s stocks.
French President Emmanuel Macron later said that two rockets had fallen on Polish soil – not just one. When asked about the alleged authors, he replied: “Today we can’t assign that. We have to be very careful.” Scholz also warned that one should “be careful” with definitions.
What is known about the alleged bullet used?
For experts, photos of debris indicate a missile from the S-300 anti-aircraft system. Biden made a similar statement. The S-300 system is of Soviet design – an integral part of Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defense system, which is extremely busy every day. On Tuesday alone, according to Ukrainian counts, Russia fired more than 90 rockets and cruise missiles. The Interfax Ukraina news agency also reported, citing military experts, that debris also indicates a Russian Ch-101 cruise missile.
How is Poland reacting?
The EU and NATO member between Germany and Ukraine put parts of its armed forces on increased alert. Warsaw also summoned the Russian ambassador and alerted NATO. There was also the question of whether a procedure under Article 4 of the NATO treaty would be initiated. A crisis meeting of the permanent representatives of the 30 alliance states was on the program at the headquarters of the western military alliance in Brussels.
What does Article 4 regulate?
It provides for consultations if one of the NATO countries sees itself threatened from the outside. Specifically, it states: “The parties will consult each other if, in the opinion of one of them, the integrity of the area, the political independence or the security of one of the parties is threatened.” The article has been invoked seven times since the alliance was founded in 1949 – most recently on February 24, the day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was applied for at the time by Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Why does Poland not apply for the alliance case under Article 5?
Because there was no evidence that one or more rockets were fired specifically at the Polish village. Article 5 stipulates that the NATO states regard an armed attack against one or more partners as an attack against all. Hence the obligation to provide assistance. Article 5 has only been activated once – after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States.
How are Poland’s partners reacting?
At the time of the explosion, most of the heads of state and government of the G20 countries were having dinner in the open air – Bali is seven hours ahead. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who represented Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, had already left the island. The morning after, Biden then convened the crisis meeting. In a photo published by the German site, Biden, Scholz & Co. can be seen with serious faces.
A statement was later released stating: “We offer Poland our full support and assistance in the ongoing investigation.” At the same time, Russia was held responsible for “barbaric attacks”. From the point of view of the G7 and NATO countries, Russia is to blame for the two deaths in Poland – because without Russia’s attacks on Ukraine the incident would not have happened.
Source: Stern
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