The vote is over and yet it remains unclear who will form a coalition with whom in the next four years – and who will ultimately provide the Chancellor. While SPD candidate Olaf Scholz believes he is the winner, CDU challenger Armin Laschet continues to cling to the dream of becoming a chancellor. The decision rests with others.
Germany voted. Although the SPD and CDU have the majority of the population behind them with a good quarter of all votes, the Greens and FDP have it in their hands to appoint Angela Merkel’s successor in the Federal Chancellery. The party leaders Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck as well as Christian Lindner want to sound out before talks with the SPD and Union whether they can find a common line in the formation of a government. The candidates from the SPD and Union, Olaf Scholz and Armin Laschet, will of course – each for himself – try to organize the Chancellor majority. It will be an exciting battle for power. What to do the day after the election – and which could already be decided.
Consultations in the management bodies
On the day after the federal election, the party committees first discuss the outcome of the election. According to the preliminary official results, the SPD has become the strongest force and wants to appoint Olaf Scholz as the next chancellor – but despite its historic defeat, the Union also claims to lead the government. Both rely on an alliance with the Greens and the FDP. In addition, the top people present their analysis to the press. The first thing to say in the morning is the left chairwoman Susanne Hennig-Wellsow and the top candidate duo Janine Wissler and Dietmar Bartsch (10.30 a.m.). A press conference of the SPD leaders began shortly afterwards (11.00 a.m.), the exact line-up was initially not announced.
At lunchtime, the top AfD candidates Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla appear in front of the press together with party leader Jörg Meuthen (1 p.m.). CDU boss and Union chancellor candidate Armin Laschet also speaks out (1.30 p.m.). The Green Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock and her co-party chairman Robert Habeck will speak in the afternoon (2.15 p.m.). At the FDP, the committees meet in the morning; a time for the press conference should only be announced on Monday.
Scholz or Laschet – who can prevail?
After the general election, the formation of a complex government is becoming apparent. The only conceivable two-party alliance would be a new grand coalition, which neither the SPD nor the Union want. This is why there is likely to be a three-way alliance in the federal government for the first time since the 1950s.
Scholz sees a clear mandate for the SPD. Many voters have made it clear that they want a “change in government” and that the next Chancellor should be Olaf Scholz, he said. And with a view to the Union: some parties would have achieved growth – others not. “That is also a message.” It is considered likely that the previous Vice Chancellor and Minister of Finance will seek a traffic light alliance with the Greens and the FDP, as has been ruling in Rhineland-Palatinate since 2016.
But Laschet also wants to try, despite his defeat, to agree on a coalition with the Greens and the FDP. The CDU / CSU will do everything possible to form a government under their leadership, said the CDU leader. “Germany now needs a future coalition that will modernize our country.” CSU chief Markus Söder said: “We firmly believe in the idea of a Jamaica alliance.” During the election campaign, he had voiced massive reservations against the Union raising its claim to government again if it did not become the strongest force. Now he said: “We want to go into these talks together with the clear goal of defining the leadership mandate for the Union so that Armin Laschet will then become Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany.”
For the claim to leadership, the CDU chancellor candidate and his party are criticized from within their own ranks. The election result was an earthquake and showed a clear change in mood against the CDU, said Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU) on Monday morning at MDR Saxony. You have to admit that very clearly. Kretschmer said that the attitude in the Adenauer House in Berlin did not open up to him to speak of a government mandate. This line is exactly on the previous course that led to the crash of the Union, and is not sustainable.
Chancellery chief Helge Braun has shown disappointment with the election result of the CDU. “For us the result is bitter, and the CDU will certainly not come to terms with being a party of less than 30 percent,” said the CDU politician on Germany radio on Monday. He could imagine a coalition of the CDU, FDP and the Greens: “I think the Jamaica coalition is also something that is very charming.” Braun also mentioned a grand coalition with the SPD as a possibility. “The SPD cannot claim that it is the only new start,” said Braun.
CDU party vice rejects personnel debates
After the heavy losses suffered by the Union in the Bundestag election, the Union of Values is calling for a comprehensive repositioning of staff. “The board of directors and party chairmen of the CDU and CDU” – Armin Laschet and Markus Söder – “have to draw the conclusions from the election debacle in the federal election of September 26, 2021 and resign with immediate effect,” said the union of ultra-conservative Union members on Monday night . The boards of directors should be re-elected by all members of the Union – and not just delegates.
However, CDU party vice Silvia Breher ruled out a personnel debate. “We will analyze the result and first see that we can bring about a coalition – we will see everything else,” said Breher on Monday in the ARD “Morgenmagazin” on a question about the future of party leader and Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet in the event that the Jamaica coalition with the Greens and the FDP that the Union is aiming for does not come about.
Laschet will also remain party leader of the NRW CDU until the state party conference on October 23, said the Secretary General of the North Rhine-Westphalian CDU, Josef Hovenjürgen. “And he will take on this role.” “I am assuming that we will certainly not have the election of a new prime minister before the party conference,” said Hovenjürgen on Monday to the German press agency. There is currently no reason for Union Chancellor candidate Laschet to give up his office immediately.
Others also have a say
Now the courtship for the coalition partners begins. Both the SPD and the CDU had already announced that they would come to an understanding with the FDP and the Greens. Whether a Jamaica or Ampelkoation emerges in the end depends on who makes the better offer to the smaller parties – and what the Liberals and the Greens want.
FDP leader Christian Lindner suggested on the evening of the election to sit down with the Greens in advance to first sound out intersections and points of dispute with one another before explorations. His vice Wolfgang Kubicki supported this in the newspapers of the Funke media group. Lindner would prefer to form a coalition with Laschet, the Greens with Scholz. At first it was not known when the green-yellow talks would begin.
On the day after the general election, FDP General Secretary Volker Wissing signaled a willingness to compromise, for example on tax issues, with a view to possible explorations. “The proposals of the FDP are not extreme, they are clear – and we are ready to talk about step-by-step implementation,” he said on Monday in the ARD “Morgenmagazin”.
Wissing defended himself against the accusation of trying to help the Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet (CDU) into the Chancellery despite a poor election result. “We don’t want to heave anyone into the Chancellery,” he said. “We said from the start: We are not interested in Armin Laschet or Olaf Scholz, it is about content.” The result of the federal election made it clear that people wanted neither climate protection at the expense of their prosperity nor prosperity at the expense of nature and the environment. Both aspects must now be brought together, warned Wising.
The Greens have also announced talks with the Liberals
Conversely, the chairman of the Green parliamentary group, Anton Hofreiter, has also announced small-scale talks with the FDP. “It will first be spoken in a very small circle between the FDP and the Greens,” said Hofreiter in the ARD “Morgenmagazin” on Monday. “You will see: What are the similarities, but what does the other side also need so that it can work.” It is important to him to modernize the state and comply with the Paris climate agreement.
A coalition should not work towards the “lowest common denominator”. “It must be perfectly clear that the next decade will be an investment decade.” He also considered opening the debt brake – “otherwise we will go into debt with the young people in the country”.
Government negotiations could drag on until 2022
The power structure in Berlin shifted after the election. Because neither the SPD nor the Union were able to secure a clear majority, they are now dependent on the readiness of the Greens and the FDP. The latter had already indicated several times that it would prefer to form a coalition with the Christian Democrats. Who will ultimately form the government, however, is by no means certain today.
The Düsseldorf political scientist Stefan Marschall reckons that the coalition negotiations could drag on until Christmas. He believes “that the parties will try to ensure that we have clarity before Christmas,” said Marschall of the German press agency. But it is questionable whether there will be a new Federal Chancellor. “But we will already know which way it is going.”
He expects “very complicated” coalition negotiations, said Marschall. Reason are the two options “Jamaica” or “traffic light”, which are mutually exclusive. The political scientist assumes that talks between the parties take place in parallel. “Between the little ones but also between big and small. There is no official script for such a situation.” The Greens and FDP have also made it clear that they don’t just want to be asked by the big parties.
In negotiations in the direction of a traffic light coalition made up of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP, the FDP will attach great importance to ensuring that it is adequately taken into account in the area of tax policy. “Tax increases or a wealth tax are certainly beyond the red line for the FDP.” On the other hand, there would have to be “very far-reaching measures in the area of climate policy” for the Greens in negotiations towards the Jamaica coalition of the Union, FDP and Greens.
One day after the election, correct results are not to be expected – but initial considerations on the part of the parties as to who could govern with whom.
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