Historic election failure: That is why the end of the popular parties is approaching

The crash was looming – and yet it hits the Christian Democrats in particular hard. You will remember 2021 as a historic election failure, while the SPD can look forward to a lead of a little more than one percentage point. Mathematically, it could be enough for another grand coalition (GroKo). However, the alliance did not have much support from the electorate. That was different.

When the SPD and Union first formed a GroKo in 1966, almost 74 percent of all voters had voted for one of the two parties. When the time came again in 2005, both camps could count on 53 percent support. A historic decline will follow in 2021: only one in four eligible voters voted for one of the two mainstream parties – or as FDP leader Christian Lindner put it: “75 percent of the voters voted against the other party.” This means that neither the Social Democrats nor the Union should lay claim to government – and possibly lose their status as people’s parties.

Because in order to be able to name oneself accordingly, a far greater approval of the population is required. The Federal Agency for Civic Education (bpb) defines a people’s party as “a party that has supporters in all groups and strata of the population”. That is hardly the case with this choice. In this year’s general election, 35 percent of those over 60 years of age cast their votes to the SPD and 34 percent to the CDU, the proportion falls with age. Of the 18 to 29 year olds, the former people’s parties only received 11 percent (CDU) and 17 percent (SPD). Instead, the Greens and the FDP emerged as clear winners in this age group.

Who is to blame for the decline of the popular parties?

For the Conservative Union, the election result is not only a mathematical debacle. The status as a people’s party is identity-creating. After the Second World War it was regarded as an interdenominational gathering party “of Catholic and Protestant Christians and all (…) who profess to the formative forces of Western culture and to the best traditions of German virtues”, as Karl Arnold once said, the first President of the Federal Council, the Chamber of States. The constant secularization of society may have contributed to the end of this tie to identity and the term “people’s party”.

Political scientist Michael Koß from Leuphana University in Lüneburg also sees the end of the big popular parties. In the absence of a clear majority, none of the established parties can currently claim this title for themselves. However, the political scientist does not see the guilt with the parties themselves. The cause is “a complication of social conflicts,” according to his thesis. In other words: There is no longer any direct connection between social problems. Instead of superimposing one another, the big arguments run at right angles to one another. Many people believe that questions about solving climate change stand in the way of questions of social security. Because both cost money that can only be spent once. This leads to disagreements and party foundations within the political system – and makes it more difficult to form a traditional majority from a large and a small party.

But not only the social problems have changed. “Today we live in a democracy with heterogeneous groups, and in a European comparison we are almost the last to make ends meet with two established parties,” says political scientist Koß. In order to reach as many supporters as possible, popular parties should take into account as many of these social interests and world views as possible in their programs, according to the definition of the Bpb. What this attempt has led to is shown by one with the “Frankfurter Allgemeine”. The substantive delimitation of the parties from one another is becoming increasingly blurred. In particular, the positions of the CDU / CSU and SPD can hardly be distinguished. This complicates both the identity bond and the voting decision. The result: an increase in the number of undecided voters and those who vote strategically.

Is it time to look back?

This is also reflected in the run-up to this year’s general election. Four days before the final vote, 40 percent of all voters were still unsure where to put their tick. An uncertainty that journalists believe they recognize in the election results. “This year’s federal election has shown that the loudly propagated change in the population is less desirable than assumed,” said Koß. Climate change is only taken seriously by a noisy minority, especially the young. “However, there are also many among the young voters who seem rather unimpressed by the problem,” says Koß. For many, questions of social security are more important. In terms of arithmetic, another alliance of CDU and SPD would be the best.

And yet it is time to say goodbye to the people’s parties. “There is no reason to mourn them, because firstly they will not come back and secondly they have been unable to answer some questions: climate change, migration, the future of Europeanization,” says Koß. Instead, society should adjust to more flexible coalitions with more partners – “and consider a possible minority government.”

Before the popular parties established themselves at the end of the Second World War, parties saw themselves as representatives of certain population groups. A return to political niches that represent at least parts of the population may be necessary. It remains to be seen whether this will solve all social problems. However, this would allow the parties to sharpen their political profile again and thus not only make it easier for voters to cast their votes, but also shorten the coalition negotiations.