According to a media report, the Federal Ministry of Defense expects a major Russian offensive on Ukraine in April. US military experts come to a slightly different conclusion.
According to one (NZZ), the Federal Ministry of Defense expects a new major Russian offensive on Ukraine in April 2023. This emerges from an internal paper from the “Deployment and Strategy” department. According to “NZZ”, the department of the Ministry of Defense is developing two scenarios in the analysis. The current attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure play a role in both:
- Putin wants to conquer the entire Donbass
While Russian President Vladimir Putin orders the offensive in April, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is massing tens of thousands of soldiers on the border with Ukraine. In this way, the Ukrainian army is to be forced to divide its forces: only one part will defend the Donbass, another part will be tied to the border with Belarus.
According to the “NZZ”, the Ministry of Defense does not expect the Belarusian army to really intervene in the war against Ukraine. - Putin wants to conquer all of Ukraine
To achieve this goal, Russian troops would attack Donbass, while Belarusian troops march towards Kyiv. In order to prevent arms deliveries for Ukraine from the west, the Russians would advance to the Polish border and also occupy Transnistria. According to the Federal Ministry of Defense, a general mobilization in Russia would be necessary. According to the NZZ, the “Operations and Strategy” department considers this “rather unlikely for domestic political reasons”.
The Federal Ministry of Defense comes to the conclusion that the Russian army’s potential threat to NATO has decreased as a result of the high losses. Nevertheless, the stationing of Russian nuclear weapons on the NATO border is expected as a deterrent, according to the “NZZ”.
Major Russian offensive in Ukraine
The (ISW) is drafting another attack scenario on Ukraine: According to this, Russia has been planning a renewed offensive since at least October. The ISW sees signs, but no evidence, that Russia is preparing a military force in Belarus. Nevertheless, according to the ISW, another major Russian invasion from Belarus this winter is “although unlikely, but a serious possibility.”
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“ISW” cites the establishment of a Russian field hospital in Belarus as an indicator. Ukraine also reports that Russia is planning another field hospital in the neighboring country. “Field hospitals are not necessary for exercises and could indicate the preparation of combat operations,” says the . Russian T-90 tanks were also transferred to Belarus and some were equipped with winter camouflage. This could therefore indicate impending combat operations, but could also be part of a Russian information tactic.
So all analysts agree that Russia is preparing an offensive and that Belarus will play a tactical role in it. Whether and when this offensive will come is probably only known to Vladimir Putin himself at the moment.
Sources:.
Source: Stern
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