More than ten months ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. Since then, his army has met stiff resistance. But how will the war go in the new year? Six predictions from experts.
According to the statements made by Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelesnkyj at the turn of the year, Russia’s war in Ukraine will probably last quite a while. Both presidents left no doubt that they want to win the fight – and will. “I think we’re moving in the right direction, we’re protecting our national interests, the interests of our citizens, our people,” Putin said on Russian state television at Christmas. And as if to confirm, the Kremlin chief also rained rockets over Ukraine on New Year’s Eve and New Year. In addition, a decree issued by Putin came into force on New Year’s Day, according to which the number of Russian soldiers will increase by 137,000 to 1.15 million in 2023.
In contrast, in his New Year’s speech, Selenskyj swore his fellow citizens to resist the Russian attackers: “We are fighting and will continue to fight. For the sake of one important word: victory,” he said. He ended his short speech with the words: “Happy New Year! The year of our victory.” On New Year’s Day he then added: The Russian military was noticeably afraid, the president claimed. “And they are right to be afraid, because they will lose.” Even with drones and rockets, the Russian military would not get far. “Because we stick together.”
But what do experts say about the course of the war in 2023? Six Opinions:
Former Bundeswehr and NATO General Hans-Lothar Domröse expects the guns to fall silent in the not too distant future. “I expect a standstill in early summer, when both sides say: Now it’s no longer of any use,” Domröse told the Funke newspapers. “We will have a truce sometime in 2023.” The most likely time between February and May is a situation “in which both sides realize that they are not getting anywhere,” said the former general. “That would be the moment for ceasefire negotiations.”
However, such negotiations do not mean peace by a long shot, Domröse clarified. “A ceasefire means: We stop shooting. The negotiations are likely to take a long time, you need a mediator: maybe UN Secretary General Guterres, Turkish President Erdogan or Indian President Modi – although nobody really imposes themselves.” All that remains is a negotiated solution that is acceptable to both sides, “even if Putin would actually like to have all of Ukraine and Zelenskyy would like to liberate all of Ukraine again.” As a possible solution, he called “Zelenskyj not demanding that areas like Crimea be immediately reintegrated into Ukraine – a transition could be agreed”.
Also Russia and security expert András Rácz from the German Society for Foreign Relations told Funke newspapers there could be talks between Ukraine and Russia in the summer. “I’m pretty sure by the end of the year we’ll have some sort of truce: hopefully no more fighting, but certainly a lot less fighting.”
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It is unlikely that Russia would want to wage an intensive war before or during the upcoming presidential election in 2024. He expects that Russia will therefore want to reduce the intensity of the fighting over the course of the year. “Also because the supply problems for the Russian army are likely to increase in the summer.”
“Vladimir Putin will try to reach a stalemate”
Former US Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton predicted that Putin would try even harder to destroy facilities important to the population: “I think he will continue to expand the things he is doing now”. “You will see more attacks on civilian infrastructure, unfortunately. You will also see attempts by Russian troops to penetrate a bit into areas of the Donbass in the eastern part of the country that the Russians have either not had control of or are not fully under their control However, the Ukrainians have a lot of momentum on their side, the military analyst explained. “They are also able to use their logistical supply chain much better than the Russians. The Russians will have considerable difficulty in achieving their war goals, but Putin will try to use as many different levers as possible to achieve at least a stalemate in this war. Hopefully he won’t succeed, but that’s his declared goal.
Leighton doesn’t believe that Putin can sustain his war in the long term. “What we are seeing are some serious bottlenecks in its supply chain, we are seeing some real difficulties getting its Russian forces operational,” the expert said. The fact that the Kremlin chief called up around 300,000 reservists for a partial mobilization shows that there are major weaknesses in the Russian military. “Those weaknesses will remain and they will be exacerbated by the things he is doing now. So what Putin is trying to do is look at everything closely, but his ability to conduct offensive operations will be severely tested will, and I think it will fail.”
Raimonds Graube, former commander of the Latvian Armed Forces, believes that this winter and spring will be very crucial for the course of the war. During this period, the Ukrainians would have the opportunity to take the initiative. The Russians could also officially declare war and start a general mobilization, which would result in a different type of warfare.
Graube also believes that negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow are possible in the new year, even if Ukraine has not reconquered all of its territories, such as Crimea. “The military reconquest of Crimea would be a very, very difficult military operation, given Crimea’s geographical location and Russia’s ideological and constitutional attitude towards it.” create for a nuclear conflict,” the ex-commander warned. “I think all sides understand this, and I would predict that there will be some kind of negotiations on Donetsk and Luhansk, because militarily they are much easier to liberate than that Crimea.”
“Ukraine only has the choice between war and annihilation”
According to the assessment of Claudia Major, security expert at the Science and Politics Foundation, there will be no peace in Ukraine in 2023 either: “The war will last a long time”, . “I don’t expect the war to end next year if our military support remains at the level it has been up to now.” Ukraine needs more weapons to decisively push back Russia, the expert said. “In order to fight Russian communications, logistics, leadership, it needs drones, artillery and rocket artillery with longer ranges. To liberate more areas, it needs main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers.”
Major currently does not consider the Russian armed forces to be capable of further large-scale attacks: “At the moment I do not see the necessary military capabilities in Russia to march to Moldova,” she told the editorial network. The Kremlin’s troops are currently not in a position to carry out a “land assault on Kyiv”. “Nevertheless, Russia could inflict heavy casualties on Ukraine and slow it down, if only by sending poorly trained recruits to the front lines and continuing to destroy civilian infrastructure.”
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The expert sees little chance for peace negotiations. Anyone who believes that Ukraine has a choice between war on the one hand and negotiations and peace on the other is completely misunderstanding the situation, she explained: “Ukraine only has the choice between war and annihilation: war, i.e. to liberate the Russian-occupied areas, or under Russian rule occupation – as in Irpin or Izjum – to be destroyed.” But there will come a point in time when both sides will agree to freeze the military conflict, Major said. With its support for Ukraine, the West can ensure “that it is then in the best possible position, i.e. that Ukraine perseveres, can liberate as much territory as possible and drive up the costs for Russia – then hopefully that time will come soon. Then the guns will be silent”. The 46-year-old stated that the political conflict had not yet been resolved. The issue at stake is the future of Ukraine and Russia, borders, war reparations, dealing with war crimes and security guarantees for Kyiv. “The political conflict is therefore getting bigger and more difficult to solve with each passing day.”
Also Olga Lautman of the Washington think tank Center for European Policy Analysis does not believe in an early end to the military conflict: “Putin has exhausted all possibilities, but he will prolong the war”, . “He will look for weaknesses in the West, for friction between allies, such as between the West and Europe and between the UK and the EU.” Lautman noted that Putin is good at prolonging a war. “His forces invaded Ukraine for the first time in 2014, and in March we are dealing with nine years of war in Ukraine.”
According to Lautman, there is only a chance of an end to the war without Putin. “Peace in Ukraine means Russia packs up its military and goes home,” she said. “It means that Russia will evacuate all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and Donbass.” That will not happen under Putin. “If his regime collapses and there is a new face in the Kremlin who wants to make amends, then there can be short-term changes.”
Sources: , , , DPA
Source: Stern
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