All sorts of sensitive and potential controversial issues, the ongoing energy crisis and four elections: 2023 promises to be a turbulent year for the traffic light coalition. A first look.
In the eyes of Olaf Scholz (SPD), “a difficult year” is coming to an end. Exploding prices, energy shortages, existential fears, not least a war in Europe. “This turning point is also putting us and our country to the test,” the Chancellor stated.
Scholz has been leading the traffic light alliance of SPD, Greens and FDP for twelve months – under historically difficult circumstances. As a result, the coalition partners had to adapt their , in which they promised “more progress”, to reality several times. Nevertheless, much has been done and progress is visible.
Neither a “hot autumn” nor a “fury winter” occurred. Several relief packages are intended to make the rising (energy) prices more bearable, and a “special fund” to strengthen the Bundeswehr. With the turn of the year have already come into force, including the citizens’ benefit.
Nevertheless, the coming year is likely to prove turbulent for the three-way alliance. The Ukraine war and the economic consequences for Germany should continue to occupy the traffic light, as well as three state elections (and a repeat election) and all sorts of sensitive and potential controversial issues among the coalition partners. An overview.
Energy Crisis and Inflation
Although a price brake for electricity and gas should take effect this year, which should relieve many customers, further measures could become necessary depending on how the situation develops.
“We will have to endure higher prices throughout the year” (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen). Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) also assumes that energy prices will remain at a high level, “but without ruinous peaks”. For 2023 he expects inflation of seven percent, he said.
Comparatively mild temperatures are currently worrying us, but we are warning of a possible supply gap in the coming winter. Chancellor Scholz assumes that Germany will also get through next winter. As a result, he wants to continue to expand the liquid gas terminals, and the first of six LNG investors has now started.
In the long term, renewable energies should also eliminate dependence on Russian gas, but the expansion will take time, at least in the short term – in contrast to the coalition partners. He also repeatedly questioned the shutdown of the remaining three nuclear power plants, which will continue to run until mid-April. There is a need for speech programmed in the traffic light.
For the Germans, fighting inflation (63 percent) and securing the energy supply (61 percent) are among the most important issues in the coming year, according to a recent survey.
Need to speak about mask requirements, security strategy, weapon deliveries – and other projects
Most recently, the statement by the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten, had the debate about the corona protection measures fueled. Finance Minister Lindner called for the mask requirement in long-distance rail transport to be ended “at the earliest opportunity”.
Even when working on the “National Security Strategy” Germany, there is obviously a need for discussion. According to information from “Welt” and “Spiegel”, the Federal Chancellery and the Federal Ministry of Finance rejected a draft of the Foreign Office for the strategy – because of differences in some central points of the text. The traffic light’s original schedule called for the strategy to be presented before the Munich Security Conference in mid-February. This schedule is now in question because the government partners are still far apart, reported “Spiegel” and “Welt”, citing government circles.
Also regarding the Arms deliveries to Ukraine there are different views in the coalition. Despite requests from Kyiv, the federal government has so far refused to hand over modern Leopard and Marder tanks. One of the biggest critics of this decision is the FDP defense politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. “I’m so sorry for the excuses why we can’t deliver tanks”, . Also to expand the German arms aid.
The Modernization of the German Armed Forces to be discussed, which is to be strengthened with a special fund of 100 billion euros – and is only making slow progress, . Recently one has become known. You have “an incredible number of construction sites to tackle” from the FDP, which expects little improvement in 2023. The opposition is becoming clearer: “If you are wondering about the current situation in the Bundeswehr, you can say: The fish stinks from the head”, addressed to Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD).
However, these are topics that have already provided topics of discussion in the past year. The traffic light coalition, for which 2023 is also the halfway point in their government, still has some plans in the coalition agreement – such as the reform of electoral law and citizenship law or the introduction of basic child security, the key points of which the Federal Government would like to present at the beginning of the year.
Several federal states have the (re)election ahead of them …
After exactly one year in office, the traffic light coalition was in polls (how and ) without its own majority. That was at the beginning of December. Will the mood change again in the new year? The SPD, Greens and FDP should be able to see this from the results of three state elections (and one re-election) this year.
Get started Berlin (February 12), where the elections to the Chamber of Deputies and the district parliaments will be repeated after a decision by the state constitutional court due to numerous mishaps. The Green Transport Senator Bettina Jarasch is not as well known as Franziska Giffey (SPD), but could replace her as Governing Mayor – the polls predict a neck-and-neck race.
Elections are also made in Bremen (May 14), Bavaria (October 8) and Hesse (28th of October). In Bremen it is up to the SPD to defend its mayoral post, whereas in Hesse and Bavaria the CDU and CSU want to retain their top position.
Particular attention should be paid to the performance of the FDP in all four elections. “If the negative trend of the liberals in the 2023 elections continues, this will shake the traffic light coalition in the federal government,” predicted the political scientist Uwe Jun in the . Liberal voters are even more dissatisfied with the traffic light coalition than those of the CDU. “They don’t feel comfortable in the traffic light because they don’t see enough FDP in it,” said Jun. The FDP doesn’t take place enough and can’t make their design claim clear. If the negative trend continues, the suffering of the liberals at the federal level is likely to increase.
… and Chancellor Scholz a cabinet reshuffle?
The state elections in Hesse could also have a direct impact on Chancellor Scholz’s cabinet. Should Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser be chosen as the top candidate – which is to be expected – a number of questions are likely to arise: What if Faeser loses? Will she then go to the opposition in Hesse, where she has been for many years? Or will she stay in Berlin?
“You have to imagine Olaf Scholz as a stubborn person”, . “He will only reshuffle his cabinet if there is no other option.” If Faeser wants to remain Minister of the Interior, it will not fail because of him. “And the chancellor isn’t kicking out the much-criticized ministers Christine Lambrecht and (Federal Minister of Health) Karl Lauterbach prematurely. That would mean admitting that it was a mistake to appoint them.”
Meanwhile, the dissatisfaction with Lauterbach and Lambrecht is growing by the day: FDP Vice Wolfgang Kubicki questioned, while the Defense Minister repeatedly drew scorn and ridicule, .
And so 2023 should also be at least a busy year for the traffic light coalition. In his New Year’s speech, the chancellor was optimistic: “Let’s stay true to the path we took last year,” he demanded. “Let’s go boldly on.”
Sources: , , , , , , , , , with material from the AFP news agency
Source: Stern
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